NASCAR preseason top 40 countdown (part III)
With the 2009 Sprint Cup season approaching, it is time to break out the old crystal ball. Throughout the next several days, the top 40 drivers of 2009 will be revealed, from worst to first.
20. 1-Martin Truex Jr, Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet
Earnhardt Ganassi Racing
There were periods throughout the 2007 season when it appeared as if Martin Truex Jr was going to be able to carry DEI past the post-Junior era. In 2008, Truex Jr and the No. 1 group were unable to duplicate their breakout performance of the previous year. DEI as a whole struggled in 2008, as they lost key sponsors as well as key personnel. Following the season, DEI merged with Chip Ganassi Racing, hoping to fortify their complete program. Truex Jr will continue as the flagship driver for this organization, but in order for Earnhardt Ganassi Racing to retain Truex Jr long-term, this team must develop some sort of consistency. Truex Jr’s current contract expires following the season, and he will become a hot commodity.
2008 prediction - 12
2008 result - 15
19. 39-Ryan Newman, U.S. Army Chevrolet
Stewart Haas Racing
Once considered a perennial championship contender, Ryan Newman has failed to qualify for the Chase for the Championship in each of the past three seasons, and he only boasts one victory. His win in last year’s Daytona 500 was the only bright spot for Newman since he qualified for the Chase for the Championship in 2005. Newman saw the writing on the wall at Penske Racing, and accepted a ride with his off-track buddy and on-track nemesis, Tony Stewart. It is difficult to gauge how well this team will perform considering that the personnel has underwent a significant upgrade from 2008. Haas CNC was seldom competitive, but I sense that Stewart Haas Racing may emerge as a force to be reckoned by mid-season. However, the first month or two may be grueling for Newman and Stewart.
2008 prediction - 10
2008 result - 17
18. 83-Brian Vickers, Red Bull Toyota
Red Bull Racing
In 2007, Vickers and his Red Bull Racing team had difficulties just qualifying for races. In 2008, they became a force on the 1.5-mile and 2-mile facilities. At one point during the summer months, Vickers was inching closer to a spot in the Chase for the Championship. Unless this team can attain some consistency on the more difficult tracks, broaden their horizons so to speak, they will continue to linger around 15th place in the standings. His best finish on a track less than 1.5-miles in length was thirteenth at Dover in June. This team must figure out the short and mid-size (such as Loudon) tracks in order to be considered a true Chase for the Championship contender. They are about a year or two away.
2008 prediction - 26
2008 result - 19
17. 26-Jamie McMurray, Crown Royal Ford
Roush Fenway Racing
It is safe to say that Jamie McMurray and this team finally turned the corner last October. This team began to hit on all cylinders and nearly won races at Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead. Is it too late, though? This is the final season in which Roush Fenway Racing can field five cars, and McMurray and David Ragan are the drivers without a contractual agreement past 2009. Clearly, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Matt Kenseth are the cornerstones of RFR, and unless things go terribly wrong for any of those drivers, they will end their careers with Roush. Ragan is the up and comer with a big money sponsor, so McMurray appears to the odd-man out. Even if he is, McMurray has a lot to prove and could emerge as a top free agent. He will have the equipment to succeed, and is reunited with crew chief Donnie Wingo. This team will threaten for a spot in the top twelve, but a blurred future for this team could ultimately become their downfall.
2008 prediction - 19
2008 result - 16
16. 9-Kasey Kahne, Budweiser Dodge
Richard Petty Motorsports
Kasey Kahne has yet to surface as a legitimate championship contender. Blame it on Dodge, or the variations within the organization, but he is arguably the most inconsistent driver among the top 20. Overall, the 2008 season was a disappointment, with the exception of about six or seven races when they were among the fastest on the track. Kahne accumulated three total wins if you count the All-Star event, so he is capable of closing the deal, but he has to have a car fast enough to run up front in order to contend on a recurrent basis. Kahne will be contender to qualify for the Chase, but I just cannot get over the inconsistency factor within this team. Expect Kahne to win a race or two.
2008 prediction - 18
2008 result - 14
15. 14-Tony Stewart, Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet
Stewart Haas Racing
This is usually not the time when I begin my Tony Stewart analysis. He is typically among the top five, if not top three. Nevertheless, he is entering into a situation that may temporarily hinder his on-track performance. After a fruitful tenure with Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart decided he was ready to take the next step in his career, as he becomes part-owner of Stewart Haas Racing, formerly Haas CNC Racing. He has put together an impressive staff that is capable of transforming the also-ran operation into a bona fide contender. With that said, it is not going to materialize overnight. It will be a steady process. I do suspect that Stewart and Newman will begin to make some noise around mid-season. Stewart is still a Chase for the Championship contender, but for the first time in his career, he is not a championship contender.
2008 prediction - 4
2008 result - 9
14. 33-Clint Bowyer, Cheerios Chevrolet
Richard Childress Racing
There comes a point when you have to include and exclude drivers from the top twelve. Unfortunately, Bowyer’s two-year run in the Chase may come to a screeching halt in 2009. It will not be due to lack of effort or talent. It may be lack of chemistry. Bowyer and former crew chief Gil Martin worked together for four years prior to 2009. Now, he will have to adjust to Shane Wilson, as well as a whole new team. Bowyer is one of the more consistent drivers in the Sprint Cup garage, so if he qualifies for the Chase, it will surprise no one. I have a feeling that the cast of Chase contenders, or bubble drivers, will include a surplus of drivers, more so than in years past, and some prominent names may miss out on the ten-race championship sprint.
2008 prediction - 8
2008 result - 5
13. 6-David Ragan, UPS Ford
Roush Fenway Racing
David Ragan was indisputably the most improved driver in 2008. Ragan’s improvement was so dramatic; Roush Fenway Racing was able to land one of the most prestigious sponsors, UPS, for Ragan. Because of his late-season run of five top ten finishes in the last eight races, there are myriads of media personnel jumping on the David Ragan bandwagon, projecting that he will be among the twelve drivers fighting for the championship. Ragan could very well qualify for the Chase; he has the talent, equipment, and drive. Ragan will win a race, if not two or three, in 2009, but I will refrain from jumping on his bandwagon, at least for now. He still has some work to do before he can be listed as a true championship contender
2008 prediction - 22
2008 result - 13
12. 2-Kurt Busch, Miller Lite Dodge
Penske Racing
I have a difficult time believing that the Dodge brand will be shut out of the Chase for a second consecutive season. By process of elimination, Kurt Busch is Dodge’s leading candidate. The 2008 season was a bitter disappointment for Busch and the entire Penske Racing organization, but this team seemed to find a sense of balance down the stretch of the season. Busch scored three top ten finishes in the season’s final six races, two occurring on 1.5-mile tracks, which is significant considering past struggles coupled with the fact that those type of tracks inundate the Sprint Cup schedule. It is unlikely that Busch will contend for the title, but would it really be a bolt from the blue if he qualified for the Chase?
2008 prediction - 5
2008 result - 18
11. 5-Mark Martin, Kellogg’s/Carquest Chevrolet
Hendrick Motorsports
Mark Martin just cannot stay away. The 50 year old driver still feels that he can outrun drivers in their 20’s or 30’s. Martin enjoyed some solid showings while driving for DEI in 2008, so imagine what he can do in Hendrick Motorsports apparatus. Conversely, can he still manage the laborious 36-race schedule after two years of picking and choosing his limited schedule? The blend of Mark Martin and Hendrick Motorsports seems like a lethal combination. Moreover, Martin joins three of NASCAR’s most recognizable figures in Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr in the HMS stables. Martin still has a lot to prove, with the Daytona 500 and a title at the top of his list.
2008 result - 28
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NASCAR preseason top 40 countdown (part III)
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