RSS
Home
Generic ballot provides clues for 2010 vote
Print
Email
RSS
Subscribe
A new Gallup poll shows the Republicans pulling almost neck and neck when a respondent is asked, "if the election was held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district"
When that question was posed to people in July, 50 percent of those who responded said they would support a Democrat, while 44 percent picked a Republican, while seven percent said they were undecided.
This month's poll shows that while the Democrats still have a slim lead, with 46 percent supporting them; the Republicans have pulled within two points. 44 percent of respondents now say they will vote for a generic Republican.
Perhaps most disturbing for Democratic hopefuls is that while their numbers went down, the Republicans stayed the same, with three percent now undecided about who they will vote for.
In terms of analyzing the generic ballot for clues as to which party has the true advantage, the size of the lead among registered voters offers insight than just who has the lead.
While Democrats usually have a stated lead in registered voters, Republicans have historically had better turnout on election day.
Republicans who wish to celebrate this news should keep in mind that with every House election open (435 seats) and with the Democrats currently holding a 257 seat majority, only a land slide would rest control from the Democrats, but this polling could show evidence of a wider trend as we move closer to 2010.
Related Articles:
Add a Comment
