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End of the Season Part III: The off-season for the offense

Adam Dunn was the big news of last off-season, and should be a big focus of this one. (AP Photo/Jeffrey M. Boan)

Now that I have addressed the highs and lows of the franchise as we head into another off-season (which starts in early October in DC, as always), it is time to look at the possible moves to be made. The “Hot Stove League” is always an exciting time in Major League Baseball, as free agency dominates the headlines throughout the Winter. This past year, even the lowly Nationals got involved, throwing the name in the hat (even though it may have been a less than genuine pursuit) of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes. The team still did make somewhat of a splash with its signing of Adam Dunn and trade for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham (which looked a lot better once Emilio Bonifacio realized he was Emilio Bonifacio and not Honus Wagner). This off-season there are moves to be made, but the team needs to not just focus on improving this season but building for the future.

 

The team can afford to be aggressive this off-season as big contracts like Austin Kearns will be shed, but making moves for a team like the Nats is not an easy thing. What kind of player will want to come to a team that for two years straight has been the worst team in the league? The kind of player the Nats are looking for will fit into one of two molds. Either they will be a) a player who is either unproven, or in the denouement of their career and Washington is the only team offering them a full-time gig, or b) a player at a deep position who falls through the cracks thanks to other marquee players (see Dunn, Adam circa 2008). Before we talk about what’s out there, let’s talk about what is here (or in many cases, what isn’t here). First, let’s head around the diamond and focus on the positional areas of need. 

 

Catcher: At the moment, the only catchers left on the Major League roster are Wil Nieves and Jesus Flores. Josh Bard is out of a contract, and sadly Jamie Burke, recently acquired in a brilliant move by the team, is also unsigned for next year. Flores looked ready to bust out this year and turn into a quality Major League-backstop (he hit .301 with 4 HRs in April), but after two shoulder surgeries his availability for the majority of next season is no guarantee. As a result, a solid and reliable backup catcher, who will not leave a major hole in the lineup is at a premium. Bringing back Bard should be a good option, as he is a former starter in San Diego and can switch-hit, but Bard was putrid this season at the dish (.230, 6 HRs) and struggled mightily with injuries. Nieves is serviceable defensively, but can the team afford to have a player with two career dingers in 543 Abs in the lineup for large chunks of time? Probably not.

 

Middle Infield: Officially, the Nationals have two set starters here. At short, the official line is that Ian Desmond, who performed well in his cameo appearance in the District last month, will be given a shot to play everyday. The team also says Cristian Guzman will be moved to second to keep him in the lineup despite his lack of range. Guz started the season very well, but a bum shoulder saw his production rapidly decline (he finished with a .284 BA and only hit six homers). While it may be the case that neither player will be embarrassing offensively (although neither will add much power), it is unlikely the pair will contribute enough to offset their defensive inadequacies. With Guzman, you have an aging player with limited range, coming off of shoulder surgery, and will be learning a new position. Not exactly the recipe for defensive success, is it? Desmond is a far superior athlete, who has unquestionable range at short, but is extremely error-prone. In only 55 games in AAA this year, Desmond had 17 errors, and has a career fielding percentage of just .936 in the minors (by comparison, Alberto Gonzalez, the team’s mediocre utility infielder has a career fielding percentage of .974). If you start two guys up the middle that are going to hit around .280 and combine for less than 10 HRs, they better flash some mean leather. If they are not going to produce runs, they at least better prevent them.

 

Right Field: It looks like the team is set for at least next season in left and center with Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan, but the last outfield spot is as of yet undetermined. The two in-house candidates are very close wearing out their welcome with the franchise. The man who finished the season in the lineup, Justin Maxwell, is a stud in the field. At the plate, however, he is more of dud. He did whack a game-winning grand slam a two weeks ago, and his glove and versatility make him a great candidate for a fifth outfielder if the team decides to carry one. However, unless he comes to Spring Training with a much more complete offensive game, he should not play everyday. The man who should be playing, at least based on raw talent, is Elijah Dukes. That being said, Dukes has been a slower-developing prospect than Darko Milicic. Dukes is still just 25, and I am not suggesting the team completely give up on him, but he is teetering perilously on the edge of “can’t miss” and “never was.” Dukes, and even Maxwell, should be able to compete for a starting spot, but the team needs to have a proven veteran in place to play everyday (and no, that will not be Austin Kearns, who is thankfully a free agent, and is terrible).

 

First Base: To many of you, this may seem confusing. Adam Dunn took over the position in the midst of one of, if not the, best season of his career. Dunn, however, is only signed for one more season. Behind him, the organization is extremely thin (shocker, I know). The current backup, Mike Morse, is a poor fielder and marginal hitter. In Syracuse, their starter at first, Brad Eldred, is 29 (and older than Dunn), and hit .269 this year. The presumed future holder of the position, Chris Marrero, was at AA Harrisburg this year, but only hit .267 there. This position needs to be addressed this off-season.

 

Ok, so what are the options on the market? Again, let’s look at it position by position:

 

Catcher: The biggest name on the market here is Victor Martinez, but that is not a player who fits the Nationals profile, as he can name his price on the open market. But, as in the Dunn-Tex case last year, this could help the Nats. As teams line up to throw cash at Martinez, the Nationals can lurk in the shadows and pick up the juicier than usual table scraps. While an all-star caliber player like Yorvit Torrealba or Bengie Molina would be nice, the team probably doesn’t need a long-term option, but a short-term guy who can keep the spot warm while Flores recovers. There are a few names out there that fit that bill. Jason Varitek, Jose Molina, Jason Kendall, and heck even Pudge Rodriguez are available. A veteran like that, who could handle the staff and not be to big a liability in the seven-hole, would be a great fit for the Nats. Of course, the price would have to be right…

 

Middle Infield: This is the spot where the team really needs to decide what it really wants to do, and how much it believes in Desmond and Guzman. Plenty of quality utility players are available here, such as Craig Counsell, Khalil Greene, Bobby Crosby, and John McDonald. In my opinion, however, the team needs to bring in a starter, who can hit in the two-hole and shift either Desmond or Guzman into a reserve role. Players such as Mark DeRosa or Marco Scutaro are coming good seasons, and will probably get overpaid by a contender, so are unlikely options. This is an opportunity for the Nats to find a guy who is undervalued, either because of being a bit player on a good team, or playing for a small-market team. Juan Uribe and Jerry Hairston, Jr. could fit that description, but neither are exciting options. The guy I would pursue? The O-Dog, Orlando Hudson; Hudson is a team leader, a slick fielder and hit .283 this season for the Dodgers. Hudson was such an afterthought last year, he nearly went unsigned until landing in the City of Angels for less than $4 million (less than half of what Guzman made this year), and was left on the bench in the playoffs in favor of Ronnie Belliard (yes, that Ronnie Belliard). Hudson might be just the guy for second base next season. 

 

Right Field: Obviously, some big names are out there, such as Jason Bay, Manny Ramirez, Matt Holliday, and Vlad Guerrero. Those are not the kind of players that the Nationals wants to bring in. More than likely, the team will pursue a utility-type guy, like Ryan Freel, Mark Kotsay, Gabe Kapler, or Corey Patterson who they can throw into competition with Dukes and Maxwell. With other needs to address, this is also likely all the team can afford or would be willing to spend. A player like Freel or Kotsay would be nice to see in red, white, and blue because they are versatile, athletic and have a good Big League record. It would be nice to see the team chase a secondary prospect (such as Bobby Abreu or Jermaine Dye) that is in the periphery of other team’s sights thanks to those big names mentioned above. As big a boost as that type of player could provide, it is probably not a good time at this time in the history of the franchise (the money or the talent is not there to make a run at the World Series in 2010) to throw out a bunch of money to another player on the downside of their career.

 

First Base: The answer here is simple: kiss Adam Dunn’s butt every day of the off-season and lock him up for a few more years. Dunn gave the team a gift by signing last year for $20 million over two years. His fielding may be a work in progress, but his bat is irreplaceable. Rather than waste their time waiting for young kids to step up, or bringing in some mediocre free agent next year, they need to somehow convince Dunn to stay. Do I need to remind anyone again that Dunn is only 29?? For example, all of the players I mentioned as possible signees at other positions are older than Dunn. If the team wants to build a winner anytime soon, they need to make sure Dunn stays around past 2010.

 

Whew, that was exhausting, and I did not even address the pitching staff (we will look at that later in the week). As you can tell, trying to fix a two-time 100 loss team is no easy task. It is especially tricky in a place like Washington, where the team should be considered big market (or at least in the upper half or markets), but the team still operates in the small market range thanks to embarrassing ticket sales. Additionally, the team does not have the luxury of building from within thanks to perhaps the most barren minor league cupboard in all of baseball. Still, even with all the holes I addressed, this team took major steps towards competition offensively this year, and may not be that far away.

 

Small notes from around the Bigs: You’ve got to love October baseball in Colorado. The Mile High city threw another curveball this week, as Game 3 in the Phils-Rox series was snowed out. That’s right – snowed out. Interestingly, this weather has more of an impact than just delaying games. Philly will turn to rookie J.A. Happ in Game 3 rather than veteran Pedro Martinez due to the cold weather. So, Colorado caught a break, right? While Happ has no postseason experience, he is the likely NL Rookie of the Year and posted a 12-4 record and 2.93 ERA. I know Pedro has the track record (and would gladly bean Babe Ruth in the rump), but right now I’d rather face him than the red-hot Happ.

 

As always, feel free to leave a comment and check out my homepage to read all of thoughts on the Nats.