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The battle for Waziristan
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The battle for Waziristan has begun! News reports vary and cannot be independently verified but it would appear that in the last two days 60 militants and 5 Pak soldiers have been killed. (Not that body count is any measure of success.) This is the first of a series of articles that try to put this important campaign into perspective.
The Pakistani press has characterized this attempt to clean out the Taliban stronghold as the ‘mother of all battles’. The battle area is formidable terrain covering 2,420 square kilometers (935 Square miles). Figures vary, but it is estimated that Waziristan is home to more than 5,000 hardened militants besides some 2,000 Uzbek fighters. The total strength of the enemy in the area is said to be 10,000, which includes about 1500 “foreign fighters”. Amazingly the reports are that only two divisions of the Pakistani Army are involved. Given the terrain and the opposition one might have expected more troops to be committed. But there are several possible explanations for the small number of troops involved:
1. The Corps Commanders are reported to still view India as the major threat and do not want to divert attention from that threat
2. The Army expects to divide and isolate the Taliban and then using its overwhelming firepower advantage attack the Taliban with air and artillery, thus reducing its own casualties. (This of course may increase the probability of collateral damage to civilians.)
3. Past efforts, since June, have been successful in gaining some allies among tribal warriors thereby reducing the number of militants to be dealt with and the area of operations.
It is expected that with the start of the operation the Taliban will try to retaliate elsewhere in Pakistan to deter the continuation of the operation as we have pointed out previously. More suicide attacks can be expected in large cities like Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore and Karachi. The safe haven for the Taliban and the Uzbek militants is in South Waziristan. Thus for these militants this is a battle for their very existence.
The Pakistan Army has been preparing for this battle since June. Much of this time was probably spent to allow the civilians to flee the area and to gain detailed intelligence about the area of operations. The army has also spent weeks cutting off the militants’ escape routes and softening up targets in the region. The Army also hoped to reduce the militants’ effectiveness by creating an economic blockade. This measure is said to have restricted supplies to the Taliban. It was hoped that it would further reduce the militants fighting ability. Additionally, there are reports that the Army has been waiting for night vision goggles and mobility equipment (helicopters) from the United States. Delivery of these items continues. Additionally, General Petraeus is to travel to Pakistan on Monday. Though the purpose of his trip has not been announced one can assume that he his several items on his agenda:
1. To personally assess the Pakistani campaign
2. To discuss additional Pakistani needs
3. To coordinate any US activities from Afghanistan is support of the Pakistani efforts to destroy the Taliban
4. To reinforce US support for the Pakistani efforts.
Only time will tell whether the Army will truly deal the Taliban a severe blow or will it again try to negotiate some form of peace agreement. The later is of course what the Taliban are seeking and the reason for its terrorist attacks. The reports indicate that there is more political support for this effort than the last. We will keep you informed.
What are your thoughts about this offensive?
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