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Taliban are desperate
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Most commentators have called the recent suicide bombings and attack on the Army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, Pakistan by the Taliban as signs of their strength. These pundits go on to apply the same arguments to the attacks in Afghanistan—especially the one against the isolated outpost where there were 8 US KIA... These pundits are WRONG--these are signs of desperation. The Taliban know that the Pakistan Army is about to attack into their final sanctuary in Pakistan. They also know that if General McCryhstal is provided the troops that he has asked for that NATO will be able to step up the pressure and isolate them from the population. The loss of support from the Afghani people and the sanctuaries are the Taliban’s death knoll.
The attack on the Army General Headquarters (GHQ) (I have been inside the GHQ.) was truly one of desperation. The GHQ is divided into several internal armed and guarded compounds and press reports do not suggest that the attackers got anywhere near the nerve centers that are internal to the GHQ. It is interesting to note that the Taliban/Al Qaeda attackers followed a modus operandi that is not normal for such terrorists—they were willing to attack and take casualties to get into their objective rather than just setting a bomb. This same tactic was used in the attack on a contractor compound in Saudi Arabia several years ago. In both cases the attackers must have known that they were on a suicide / desperation mission. The attack on the GHQ could only have been launched to make headlines as the attacking terrorist force was incapable of accomplishing any significant military objective. Seeking headlines is a sign of desperation not strength.
The Taliban are doing what they can to deter the Pakistanis from attacking. In the past the Pakistanis have reached accommodations with the Taliban rather than fight the tough battles. The main reason for this is that the Pakistani Army has been focused on India—both in troop deployments, doctrine and military organization. The threat in the Northwest Territories may have taken on more meaning given the recent revelations about Indian involvement with the Taliban. The US promises of increased aid have also surely helped.
The Taliban’s goal is the same with respect to the President’s troop deployment decision. They know that the US and allied weakness is the body bag—this is why some of the US’s NATO allies have allowed such limited roles for their units in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s hope is that an increase in casualties will deter the US and its alliance members from making the tough decisions on reinforcements. To do this they need to cast caution to the wind and try to inflict casualties while they in turn take large numbers of casualties -- they need to appear to be strong. In other words to hide their desperation to try to prevent what the US and Pakistan are about to do and what should have been done years ago they need to launch suicidal desperation missions.
Will the Pakistani Army still launch its promised offensive? If the Pakistani Army launches its promised offensive will there be Afghan and NATO troops on the other side of the border to capture the Taliban fleeing from Pakistan? Will the Taliban/Al Qaeda sanctuaries be greatly reduced?
What are your thoughts?
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