'Top Chef' midseason power poll

January 2, 12:08 PMTop Chef ExaminerMatt Wolf

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Ariane is this season's star, but can she win it all?

With the show roughly at the halfway point (six chefs down, seven more to go before the finale)  and taking a two week break for the holidays, it's time to rank the remaining contestants. It's a remarkably open field, there are five or six chefs that could conceivably win the competition.

In Over Their Heads

With the next episode promising a double-elimination, Eugene and Melissa are the two chefs most likely headed to the guillotine. Eugene's lack of culinary training is catching up with him, and the daily strain of the competition seems to be getting to him. It's too bad, his performance in the first episode led me to believe that he was the rare self-taught underdog that could show all of these culinary school grads a thing or two about cooking. Melissa has yet to cook a single good dish in the competition, her quickfire entries are either ignored or singled out for criticism, and she has made, by my count, 3 visits to the loser's circle in just six episodes.

Just Good Enough To Hang Around

Carla, whether by strategy or just pure chance, has not done much actual cooking in the competition. She made a desert (though admittedly, a good one) in the Craft episode, escaped the knife at Gail's bridal shower by only contributing a salad to her team's disastrous dish, and has yet to distinguish herself in a quickfire. Still, during a season full of likable contestants, Carla has emerged as my favorite personality on the show. Her interviews and her interactions with the other chefs show her to be caring, considerate, and of very good heart. But she'll be gone soon.

Radhika, for all her protestations over being pigeonholed as an Indian chef, seems to only hit the high notes with Indian-spiced food, whether it was her quickfire-winning hot dog, or her chutney-spiced duck from last episode. The girl can obviously cook, but her seeming inability to diversify will catch up to her.

Contenders, But They'll Need Somebody Else To Screw Up

Leah has been a bit under the radar lately, but she's solid. She won two straight quickfires in episodes three and four, so her immunity may have cut down on her ambition in the elimination challenges in those episodes. She kind of reminds me of Stephanie, last season's champ, in that she seems incapable of putting something disastrous in front of the judges. This is already more than can be said of Ariane, Jamie and Hosea, all three of whom have come close to getting the boot.

I've heard it argued more than once that Ariane's stubbornly mainstream approach to cooking is actually the most interesting aspect of the show this season, especially since she keeps on winning. She's a Jersey girl, and therefore a likely Giants fan who knows how important it is to peak at the right time. We'll see if she keeps rising, but she definitely hit rock bottom at the right time, back in the first two episodes when there were lesser chefs around to get sliced and diced.

Jamie is always acing quickfires (three second place finishes), and almost always cooking at an above average level in the eliminations. In fact, I sometimes find myself wondering if she's not the best chef on the show. Two things could trip her up: first, she seems to have a scallop-fetish (she'll apparently be preparing a scallop dish next episode as well), and as several rolling heads from last season can testify, scallops are dangerous. Also, she has a bit of a chip on her shoulder when it comes to talking to the judges, and that might hurt her ability to weasel out of an elimination when she needs to. Then again, the anger thing worked for Lisa last year, so what do I know?

Jeff has been one of the top two or three performers (trips to the winner's circle in the last three episodes) this season. He seems more mature and frankly, smarter than the other chefs. Still, a couple of concerns: his quickfire performances have been almost universally poor, and he, like Carla, does not appear to have done much successful cooking, especially with meat. But you can tell, Jeff's a killer. It's hard to imagine that he won't be in the final four.

The Favorites

Stefan is probably the most technically proficient chef this season (his apple chopping/peeling performance in the first quickfire was something to see, nobody else was even close to being as fast as him), but he seems to lack that extra edge that Fabio or Jeff has that could put him over the top. It sounds like a cliched thing to say about a domineering Fin, but Stefan does not seem to cook with much heart, and sooner or later, the undefinable act of putting heart and soul into your food becomes a necessity. 

Hosea, though neither a technical wizard like Jeff or Stefan, nor an edgy modernist like Fabio or Jamie, is still very good technically, and does seem to have a bit of an imagination. He's very solid and does not seem capable of wilting under pressure. His reaction last episode to his smoked pork spoiling overnight in the fridge was very telling: while he did let loose with the f-bombs, he almost seemed to find the situation darkly funny. He's unflappable, and when you're competing in the finale in some strange city, cooking for the title, that's the kind of sensibility you need. His only problems so far have had to do with correct seasoning, and while that's an easy fix, it's also a necessary one if you want the crown.

Fabio's charm and cool under fire, not to mention his obvious cooking talent, make him the favorite right now. His beef carpaccio from the Craft episode is the most impressive dish of the season so far, and he seems like the type of chef that has enough tricks up his sleeve to keep Hosea and Stefan at bay. Isn't it almost impossible to imagine Padma saying, "Fabio, please pack your knives and go?" Enough said.