These are the things I think I think

March 6, 4:15 PMSan Diego Padres ExaminerJudson Green

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Heath Bell is pumped to be pitching for Team USA.

1. Baseball America is wrong. And so are Grady Fuson and Sandy Alderson. The Padres' farm system is neither awful nor outstanding. The former cites the lack of impact players as their evidence, while Fuson and Alderson cite the organization's depth. The answer lies in between, as a combination of depth and impact players is needed to truly gauge the quality of a farm system. The Padres most likely deserve to rank  somewhere around 20th.

2. Heath Bell is lucky to be on Team USA for the World Baseball Classic. Three pitchers, Joe Nathan, Brian Fuentes, and B. J. Ryan, dropped out for various reasons, and with the Padres open-minded about participation, and well aware of their limited prospects for playoff contention in 2009, Bell was available to fill one of the spots. Fortunately, Bell understands this. He sees it as a privilege, and not a right due one of his talents. He should represent the country well, and perhaps get a nice tune-up for the season. As for injuries, well, we can only hope for the best.

3. Brian Giles is once again underrated. We pay too much attention to home runs and RBI, and not enough to on-base average (OBA). Even OPS will underrate Giles, as his figure is OBA heavy. A properly weighted figure like weighted on-base average (wOBA)  helps solve that problem. From there, it is easy to calculate weighted runs above average (wRAA) with the formula: ((wOBA - leaguewOBA)/1.15)*PA = wRAA. League wOBA is park-adjusted, of course. Giles scores at 25.7 according to Fan Graphs. Adrian Gonzalez, widely regarded as the hitting star of the Padres (indeed, it wasn't considered close), trailed at 23.7.

4. The BBWAA probably hasn't learned much. Jake Peavy could be the best pitcher in the league next year, but if he doesn't receive proper run and defensive support, he could be saddled with a mediocre record. When it comes to Cy Young voting, expect W-L record to be the first thing they look at once again. It's purely speculative, as Peavy won't be considered a favorite to deliver the best pitching performance in the NL in 2009. But on the off chance he does, the writers will probably screw the vote up, and give it to a guy with better support and luck.

5. I am curious as to whether we can learn anything about Bud Black's managing abilities this season. His first year, 2007, the Padres were coming off two straight division titles. They finished half a game better than in 2006, and 6.5 games better than in 2005, but missed the playoffs due to a late season collapse. In 2008, the Padres sputtered to a 63-99 record, but fans I talked to said the team lacked talent. In 2009, the Padres are heavy favorites to be the cellar dwellers of the NL West. So what would be considered a success? That is, how much do the Padres have to overachieve for Black to be consider to have done a good job managerially? Surely a division title is not required, and perhaps not even second or  third place. But would fourth, or a last place finish that is barely out of fourth suffice?

Those are just five things I think about the Padres. I think.