The AFC East race: How will it finish?

November 25, 4:59 PMBoston Fantasy Sports ExaminerMark Fuery

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Matt Cassel and the Patriots look to capture another AFC
East title.

This time last year the AFC East race was already over. The Patriots were on their way to their historic undefeated season while every other team in the division went on to finish with a losing record.

The division was already clinched and the Patriots had nothing else to play for except for that piece of history.

One year later, largely due to the injury to Tom Brady in the opening week along with the arrival of Brett Favre, the division has one of the most exciting races in the league.

Here is how they stand with five games to play:

New York Jets (8-3): The Jets are playing the best football in the division over the last couple of weeks, and are among the league’s best. After pulling out a big overtime win in New England, the Jets marched down to Tennessee and blew out the previously undefeated Titans.

After some early season speed bumps, Brett Favre has seemed to settle in with his new team. He has a quarterback rating of 103.6 over the last month and has thrown five touchdowns over that stretch, including two against the Titans on Sunday.

Favre has been helped by a great running game and an improving defense. The explosive Leon Washington is having a breakout year and seems to be making a big play every week, including a kickoff return for a touchdown against the Patriots and a 64-yard touchdown run against the Titans to put the game away. Washington is complimented by veteran Thomas Jones, who is quietly having a career year and could end up in Hawaii at season’s end.

On the other side of the ball Kris Jenkins has been all they had hoped for when they traded two draft picks for him soon after last season. Jenkins has been a perfect fit for the Jets 3-4 defense. He has been disrupting opposing offenses regularly and opening up space for teammates like Shaun Ellis and Eric Barton to make some big plays.

Overall, the Jets have all the pieces in place to make a serious run at a championship.

Remaining games: Denver, @San Francisco, Buffalo, @ Seattle, Miami

New England Patriots (7-4): No one expected the Patriots to be where they are now. No one! In the preseason they were expected to run away with the division again behind their explosive offense and veteran defense.

When Brady went down that all changed, and many were saying the Patriots were done. When backup Matt Cassel came in he looked unimpressive at best and the forecast of doom continued, but with each passing week the young quarterback who was starting for the first time since high school started to show some promise.

After passing for 400 yards for the second straight game (something Brady never did), Cassel is looked at as one of the team’s strengths.

In Cassel’s second big game the Patriots were able to bounce back from a tough loss to beat the division rival Dolphins to avenge an early season 38-13 embarrassment. Cassel looked much better than he did even the previous week. He was making all of the throws and was able to make Randy Moss a deciding factor for the first time all season.

If the offense is going to continue to impress, it will have to be because of Cassel. With starting running back Lawrence Maroney and backup Lamont Jordan both out for the season the Patriots figure to have trouble running the ball with consistency for the remainder of the year.

On the defensive side the Patriots have been inconsistent, but have the ability to stop anyone. To do this they will need to do a better job at making the crucial stop in big plays. The most glaring example of this is the third down play against the Jets in overtime when Favre was able to find Dustin Keller for a key first down.

Perhaps lost in that game was rookie Jerod Meyo’s 20 tackle performance. He was all over the field and the Patriots will need him to continue that type of play if they want to be playing deep into January.

The schedule is tough, but never doubt Belichick and his boys. They will be there until the bitter end.

Remaining Games: Pittsburgh, @ Seattle, @ Oakland, Arizona, @ Buffalo 

Miami Dolphins (6-5): Even if the Dolphins don’t win another game this season will be considered a great success. They are one year removed from a 1-15 record and being a legitimate threat to go winless. One year later they are still alive in the division race on Thanksgiving weekend, and as the cliché says, they are playing with house money.

When Bill Parcells took over during the off-season, the first move he made was to solidify the offensive line. Before the draft even began, the Dolphins declared tackle Jake Long the first pick, leaving more flashy picks like Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden on the board. The move has seemed to pay off as Long has been very good so far and will only improve.

When the preseason came along the Dolphins brought in quarterback Chad Pennington after the Jets let him go. Some questioned this move, but Pennington has been spectacular so far. He has not been asked to go out and win games, instead they want him to just make the smart throw and complete passes. It has worked so far, and why wouldn’t it, coming into the season Pennington had the highest career completion percentage in NFL history. He is now tied with Arizona’s Kurt Warner.

Of course, the Dolphins can’t be mentioned without bringing up the “Wildcat” offense. This unorthodox style debuted against the Patriots and has since been seen all over the league. This is perhaps the biggest reason for their success because they are able to put the ball in the hands of their playmaker Ronnie Brown, who has come back strong from a season ending knee injury a year ago. This formation gives them the ability to use both Brown and Ricky Williams in any way imaginable while taking the pressure off of Pennington.

They will have to depend on Brown and the wildcat even more now that starting wideout Greg Camarillo will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. Camarillo leads the team with 613 yards and will likely be replaced in the starting lineup by rookie Devone Bess. The Dolphins have some winnable games remaining, but with four of them on the road this young team could struggle the rest of the way.

Remaining games: @ St. Louis, @ Buffalo, San Francisco, @ Kansas City, @ NY Jets

Buffalo Bills (6-5): The Bills were a trendy sleeper pick in the preseason and started the season on fire. They won their first four games and and looked like the early favorites to take the east after Brady went down.

The 5-1 Bills opened division play in Miami and took their second loss of the season; this was their first of three straight division losses. During these loses quarterback Trent Edwards struggled and threw five interceptions. He then continued his struggles when he threw three more interceptions in the first quarter of their Monday night matchup against Cleveland. They would eventually lose the game when Rian Lindell pushed a 47-yard field goal wide right in the closing seconds.

Edwards and the Bills seemed to bounce back last week against Kansas City by putting up 54 points in an impressive win. Oddly enough, the Bills put up all of those points with Marshawn Lynch only scoring one touchdown to go along with his 104 yards from scrimmage.

If the Bills want to improve that 0-3 division record they will have to do it behind the running attack of Lynch, who is one of the most talent backs in the NFL. He has struggled at times this season, and if the Bills are going to have a chance he must be able to eat up yardage and open the field for Edwards.

The Bills have a tough road ahead, but they will have a chance to make up some ground with three division games remaining, including a week 17 match-up against the Patriots in Buffalo.

Remaining games: San Francisco, Miami, @ NY Jets, @ Denver, New England

So how will it finish? Right now the Jets have to be the favorite, but the Patriots are in a prime position to take a wild card spot. The Dolphins and Bills are still alive, but these young teams will have trouble making up ground on the Jets and Patriots, who are clearly the best in this division.

Final predictions:

Jets: 12-4
Patriots: 10-6
Dolphins: 9-7
Bills: 8-8

As history has taught us, anything can happen in this division. It has been one of the best divisions in the NFL for years and after a few down years it appears to be back. Sit back and enjoy.

For more on the Patriots and their playoff chances you can read Pats Examiner Sean Crowe's article.