After more than a week of gains, the solar sector began selling off a bit yesterday. And like clockwork, the bashing began. A number of analysts started hitting the solar piñata yesterday morning, warning investors that despite a potential, broader economic rebound in 2009, solar stocks may not recover due to constrained credit and a peaking of subsidies in Germany and Spain.
Certainly credit issues have not helped the solar industry shake its skeptics, but access to capital has not been completely shut off. New investment in 2009 is not likely to abruptly stop, and while they are not as abundant as what we witnessed in 2006 and 2007, deals are still happening, and projects are continuing to move forward.
It should also be noted that solar's growth is not linked solely to subsidies in Germany and Spain. While some analysts continue to dwell on continuing declines in subsidies in Europe, we believe the support that will soon be thrown behind solar in the U.S. will more than make up for shortfalls overseas. After all, just with the recent tax credit extensions, the U.S. is likely to become the largest solar market in the world. In fact, according to JP Morgan, the U.S. solar market will reach 1.6 gigawatts in 2011, compared with a market of 1.35 gigawatts in Germany in 2012.
And don't forget, we now have a
pro-renewables President-elect about to move into the white house too...with a congressional choir of renewable energy-loving Democrats
AND Republicans.
Yes, credit issues and declining subsidies in the countries that have been the catalyst for solar's recent ascent will affect the industry in the short-term. But for those seeking long-term growth, there's little doubt that solar will deliver. That's why I continue to tell our
Green Chip Stocks members to accumulate shares of the safer solar plays on the big dips. The last time we did this was in November, when First Solar (
NASDAQ:FSLR) fell below $90 a share. If that stocks falls below that $100 mark again, we will certainly buy more.