The Race to the Chase: 8 to go

July 6, 3:30 AMDetroit NASCAR ExaminerJosh Lobdell

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This has been a very odd year in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series. We have seen once great teams refocus their energies and become great again, we have seen one super team win the first two races of they ear and then under achieve ever since, and we have seen the transformation of Haas racing into a Sprint Cup powerhouse.

All in all these are all good things for this sport.

Already this year 11 different drivers have won the 18 races, with three first time winners; Brad Keslowski, David Reutiman, and Joey Logano. Again these are encouraging facts for the health of this series.

Today though we must talk about points. We stand now eight races from the start of the Chase for the Cup, and we have officially entered the Race to the chase for the 2009 season.

While it may be a little early to start locking folks into the chase we can safely assume that Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson are all in. Not by mathematics, but by common sense all three of these teams have run very well, and that is unlikely to significantly change over the next eight races.

The next three drivers in the points; Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin are right on the cusp of locking themselves in, again not by math but in comparison to how the other teams competing for these spots and they are running.

Ryan Newman, and Kyle Busch the next two drivers in the points standings are probably safe but have a little work to do to really feel safe about their spot in this year’s chase. It is interesting that s it stands right now Kyle would enter the 2009 chase as the top seed based on his three wins.

Now we get down to the spots that over the next eight weeks may very change. Here is a look at these drivers and how many points they are ahead of the 13th man in the points Mark Martin:

• #16 Greg Biffle +114
• #17 Matt Kenseth +100
• #42 Juan Montoya +86
• #9 Kasey Kahne +65

They are competing with these drivers for the 12 chase spots, included how many points from 12th place Montoya:

13th Mark Martin -65
14th David Reutiman -74
15th Jeff Burton -105
16th Clint Bowyer -135
17th Brian Vickers -168

Anyone further back at this point has more or less been eliminated from chase contention. Again not by math, but in comparing how all of these are performing at the track.

Of these nine drivers 9th in the points to 17th in the points, it would seem that martin and Kenseth have the best chance of making the top 12 chase contenders by the end of the Richmond race.

Kenseth has made the chase in every year of its existence and has, much like martin made a late summer push to insure his team a spot in said chase. These two seem a fairly safe bet to run for the title later this fall.

That leaves us seven drivers vying for the two remaining chase spots. Of those seven I think Burton and Bowyer would be favorites since it seems that RCR is getting their act together. But it seems unfair to rule out Kahne and Montoya both of whom have run well of late.

It does seem clear though that Reutiman and Vickers are the long shoots here. Reutiman because of his lack of experience and Vickers because of the large hole he finds himself in with the point’s situation.