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Mike Pence in Iowa shows the 2012 campaign has already begun
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This week Indiana Congressman Mike Pence announced that he will be appearing in Iowa at the end of July. The events of the week show that the perpetual campaign continues. Norm Coleman conceded to Al Franken to end the 2008 election and Pence and other Republican hopefuls scurry out to Iowa, home of the first caucus in 2012.
Pence has his work cut out for him. Only James Garfield ever went from the House of Representatives to the White House back in 1880 and he certainly benefited from being the Senator elect from a key state and a minor hero of the Civil War. Pence will be very hard pressed to win the nomination but Iowa does have a habit of rewarding unknown and underfunded underdogs from Jimmy Carter to Mike Huckabee.
Pence has had something of an odd career. While he did lose his first campaigns for Congress back in 1988 and 1990, he rebounded to win a House seat in 2000 and he has not had a close election since. Pence is a darling of the conservative pundits and his bid to become GOP House leader in 2006 won him a good deal of accolades from the various talking heads but few votes from his Republican colleagues. Still, Pence is vulnerable on a number of issues that are important to parts of the Republican base. Pence has earned the wrath of libertarians for leading the charge to ban internet gambling and online poker. Paleocons like Tom Tancredo and Pat Buchanan bashed Pence for pushing for amnesty in his 2006 immigration bill. Pence is also infamous for walking through a Baghdad marketplace back in 2007 and comparing it to a fair in Indiana-while wearing a bulletproof vest and surrounded by soldiers, helicopters and armored Humvees.
While this is no surprise since he opposes gambling, Pence may be thinking he has little to lose if he gets into the 2012 field. None of the potential Republican candidates look that imposing. Bobby Jindall fumbled his response to Obama's state of the union address. John Ensign and Mark Sanford faced sex scandals. Sarah Palin continued feuding with the beltway GOP and having her family dominate the headlines. Tim Pawlenty showed little leadership during the seemingly endless Senate election up in Minnesota. Newt Gingrich remains unpopular. Nobody seems to know what Ron Paul or Haley Barbour intend. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are no longer fresh faces and while the Republican nomination often goes to candidates who had lost in previous primaries (Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, McCain), some politicians do even worse in their second primary campaign than in the first one (Steve Forbes, Lamar Alexander). At the very least, Pence can garner exposure for moving up the ladder in Indiana or even working his way up the Congressional ranks the way Dick Gephardt did after his 1988 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Pence is a dark horse and no underdog has captured the GOP nomination since Wendell Wilkie pulled off a political miracle back in 1940. But all of the Republicans look like underdogs as the GOP continues to stumble-from sex scandals to Michael Steele's bumpy ride as RNC chair. It's hard to see Pence, or for that matter anyone else in the 2012 field, leading the GOP out of the wilderness anytime soon.
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