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In Florida, everything's up for grabs in the 2010 Elections
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The 2010 campaigns have only just begun but it appears that Florida politics are in for its greatest shakeup since Claude Kirk and Ed Gurney broke Democratic dominance of the state back in the late 1960s. When Gov. Charlie Crist announced he was seeking a U.S. Senate seat, he shuffled the political deck and now no incumbents are up for re-election in 2010.
Florida changed dramatically in the last half of the 20th century and it is hard to believe that only sixty years ago Fuller Warren was elected governor after promising to ensure that cattle would not be allowed to wander on roadways. Still the best analysis of Florida's politics at the time remains useful in trying to understand Sunshine State politics. Originally released in 1949, a year after Warren's campaign against cows in the road, Southern Politics in State and Nation by V. O. Key, Jr. remains a helpful guide to the often Byzantine politics of Florida. Key argued that Florida politics came down to "every man for himself" and that demographics, geography and culture ensured that few prominent politicians could ever control the state. Well established political figures from Jacksonville or Tampa or Miami were virtually unknown everywhere else in the state. While there have been a few exceptions to Key's thesis, Florida's leading politicians have either moved from one statewide election to another (Lawton Chiles, Bob Graham, Crist) or relied on some form of celebrity (Jeb Bush and politician-as-astronaut Bill Nelson).
So far, the 2010 elections seem to be proving Key correct. While politicians who have already won statewide elections appear to be in good shape, figures who won races at the local level have yet to do well.
The battle for the U.S. Senate seat shows this. While remaining unpopular with conservatives, Crist has a well established lead over former State House Speaker Marco Rubio in the battle for the GOP Senate nomination. Former U.S. Senator Bob Smith, who represented New Hampshire in Congress for almost two decades but is well known in Florida for his leadership in protecting the Everglades and trying to keep Elian Gonzalez in the U.S., is also in the race and, if he can find a way to raise funds, could cut into Rubio's conservative base. On the Democratic side, Miami based Congressman Kendrick Meek holds a firm lead over Jacksonville's veteran Congresswoman Corine Brown but most Democratic voters have no idea who either of the candidates are. Look for Meek to try to paint himself as the second coming of Barack Obama. Meek has already hired Steve Hildebrand, who served as Obama's deputy national campaign director and led Democratic efforts in Florida in 2008.
Two well established politicians, who have both won elections at the state level, are running for governor. Attorney General Bill McCollum, best known for his role in the Clinton impeachment and two unsuccessful bids for the U.S. Senate, appears to have a lock on the Republican nomination. While less known than McCollum, state CFO Alex Sink, wife of 2002 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill McBride, has cleared the decks for her party's nomination.
Everything else is up for grabs. Despite leading Democrats in the state House of Representatives and an aborted campaign for the U.S.Senate seat, State Sen. Dan Gelber has not pulled away from the rest of the Democratic field for attorney general. State Senator Dave Aronberg, like Gelber an up and coming leader from south Florida, remains in the race and former gubernatorial candidate Rod Smith is also considering a bid. Gelber has been making progress in securing endorsements all across the state and could take a lead if his campaign's fund-raising proves successful. Despite serving as Crist's lieutenant governor, Jeff Kottkamp does not have a strong polling lead over the rest of the Republican field for attorney general.
Things are even more jumbled lower on the ballot. Former Republican state senate president Jeff Atwater is a likely front runner over state representative Pat Patterson in the CFO primary. No major Democrats have emerged to run for the CFO post though Miami Mayor Manny Diaz's name keeps coming up. Congressman Adam Putnam, in an attempt to rise to statewide prominence, is a Republican candidate for the state agriculture post and will be taking on conservative state senator Carey Baker in the primary. There are a host of Democratic candidates for the state agriculture job including Audubon Society leader Eric Draper, former state representative and prominent rancher Rick Minton and former Suwanee County boss Randy Hatch. None of these candidates has anything close to a commanding lead and most of them remain unknown outside their immediate areas.
The U.S. Senate and the gubernatorial elections will dominate most of the headlines over the next 18 months but the other races deserve serious attention. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for many unknown politicians to start to ascend the political ladder. A number of these politicians-Gelber, Meek, Aronberg, Kottkamp, Putnam and Baker-are under 50. What may appear to be unimportant races between political unknowns will drastically shape Florida's politics for the next two decades.
