Improving today but a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday

January 5, 6:43 AMBaltimore Weather ExaminerJustin Berk

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Issued by NWS Monday morning

Now that I have your attention, I should point out that this is for Tomorrow and Wednesday.  Today we should have an improvement with some clearing after morning sprinkles.

The issue will come tomorrow, and the next storm.  Last week, this looked like a good shot at a coastal storm, and our first accumulating snow.  While there still may be snow out of this thing, it's not clean cut. 

First: Why has it not snowed yet this year?

So far, this winter has done what I and many have expected... brought lots of snow and very cold weather.  However, it's been missing us in central Maryland.  Blame it on the Jet Stream.  The separation of the haves and have nots.  Many places in the nation have had record snow, while we can barely buy a flake.  That is due to a large area of semi permanent High Pressure called the southeast ridge.  That has pushed the jet along the mountains, and kept us along with much of the Mid Atlantic on the warm side of the active storm pattern.  Cold air has slipped in, but the storms push that out just in time. 

I had advertised a pattern shift, and I still expect that...but after this next storm passes.

Forecast Maps:

Tuesday Afternoon- The precipitation will arrive, while the air may be cold enough to start with sleet and freezing rain.

Tuesday Night - The official weather map from NWS shows the same pattern we have had this winter.  Low Pressure rides up the mountains to our west.  That brings in warmer air and turns any mix over to rain as temperatures likely warm overnight and Wednesday morning.  The cold air dam that holds us with a NE wind ahead of these storms is very tough to forecast.  Depending on how long it stays near freezing, will determine the extent of icing.  That is why the Winter Storm Watch goes through Wednesday morning.

Wednesday- Cold air behind the storm will fill back in.  There is an indication that some moisture will be left over to end with some snow.  This is subject to drying over the mountains as a westerly wind often does.  This will bring in much colder air that will get even colder for the next storm this weekend.

Coastal Redevelopment?  That is what is seen here with our Adonis Computer Model.  That would be the best chance of pulling down the cold air and catching up to the moisture before it moves on. The wind flow off of the Delaware Bay shows the wrap around a new low pressure, while the flow to our west shows the influence of the original storm.  The regional of light winds is also an area that can dry slot with this set up.  It's happened to us in December, and no reason to doubt it now.  And you thought this was an easy area to forecast....

I will have more this afternoon, so please check back.