Afternoon update with my snow forecast and Snowshoe video

December 5, 2:40 PMBaltimore Weather ExaminerJustin Berk

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The 2nd most snow in the country today.

This morning was my first chance to get out and make this report. From last night's ice fog sculpting the scene, the 2nd most snow in the country, and a surprise reunion with a former co-worker from over a decade ago.   I wanted to try and do a quick report, so here it goes below:  By the way, if you missed my December 5th snow history post this morning, you can find it by clicking here.

We are still on schedule for this clipper for Saturday night and Sunday.  This is the early morning Sunday map showing the clipper Low passing to our north. Normally this is not a good position for Maryland, but it does appear to have two difference waves of moisture with it.  That is why I expect some flurries or light snow Saturday evening, and then more on Sunday.

I have analyzed the upper level energy here on the NAM model, showing one piece to our south off of VA' s coast, and the main piece in central PA on Sunday morning.  This along with some numerical guidance from the models supports at least 1/2 inch of snow for Baltimore, but up to a few inches near or north of the PA line. Note: The closest verification point I can get is for BWI, but often that does not represent the region well.

The NAM itself has BWI dry, but the GFS has .05" liquid equivalent, along with .16" from the MRF (that would mean at least 1.5" for BWI)

I would expect the first wide spread coating of snow, but a range of just a coating near the bay to 2 inches in the northern counties near Pennsylvania including Cecil, Harford- north of Bel Air, Baltimore- north of the beltway, and Carroll counties.