Strong warm winds today may bring thunderstorms before the chance of snow returns

December 10, 8:47 AMBaltimore Weather ExaminerJustin Berk

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An active jetstream moved north of Baltimore and surged in the warm air overnight

I am a strong believer in the law of averages.  On Monday, our high temperature was only 30F.  This morning at 5:00am, Baltimore's official temperature was 60F. It's like Denver- minus the mountains.  When you compare the normal high of 48F from the almanac, Monday was 18F below normal, and we have to hit 66F this afternoon to balance that out on the high end.  We will be close.

Look at the contrast of air masses on both sides of this storm.  While the warm air is surging on the east side, the western side drops well below freezing.  While Chicago reported 21F, it was in the single digits in much of the northern plains.

This contrast will enhance the energy feeding into this storm, and bring us the chance of thunder and lightning as the front passes this evening and tonight. 

Tornado Outbreak:

The energy has been enough for 11 tornadoes to form Tuesday, and a few unofficially reported this morning.  This is not as rare as you might think, as many gulf coast winter storms can generate a few tornadoes as the strong winds aloft battle the divide between tropical heat and arctic chill.  The strength of these tornadoes is often on the lower end of the Enhanced Fujita Scale.

About that snow....

I know there is a lot of interest and frustration trying to plan and prepare for what may follow.  Yesterday morning, I posted a string of model maps that showed the front passing this evening, and dropping our temperatures by Thursday morning. (Click here to see that post.) That is still the case, but the 'cold enough to snow' air may linger just west until Thursday night.  That is due to another low pressure center forming sooner and riding up the front, before it has a chance to clear east of Maryland.  There will be another upper level piece of energy that will pass through Friday evening, with the cold air in place.  That will provide another shot of snow.  So, I still see it in the forecast, just a delay by about a day.

I will have more on this when I can look at the morning computer model package.