Snow on schedule... afternoon update

November 17, 5:00 PMBaltimore Weather ExaminerJustin Berk

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Clipper still near Chicago as of 4pm.  Snow will linger Tuesday

This is an update from around 5pm.  This will be shorter than my normal post, but I wanted to give a little support for the snow lovers.  This is looking eerily similar to last December 5th.  That date alone, I have made a point to note many times as our first significant snow in 5 of the past 6 years.  Last year started out as a clipper like this, but was stronger than expected, and dropped a surprising 4.7 inches of snow.  I am not saying that this is a repeat, it just like like a similar set up.  The pattern is the same, the upper level support is strong, and the track of the Low through Virginia (to our south) is prime. This clipper is still way back into Chicago, and I can not see it passing off of the coast until mid day Tuesday at the earliest.  This morning, I called for a coating to 1/2 inch of snow to stick.  Well, it might still be snowing in the morning, and at this point- who knows. The 12Z NAM had .12" of liquid equivalent, and the GFS extracted text showed about the same, but more in the cold air.  There is support for that coating in the city, and perhaps more north and west with some topographical influence (up slope).  Still the roads are warm, but any steady overnight snow can cool that in a hurry.

The 4 o'clock observations show the leading edge of the 'cold' air in western PA.  The temperature drop off is along the mountains.  Here you can see the widespread 30s.  The white line is where I analyzed the turn over to snow, and the shift to NW winds. 

The radar here is from 4:30pm and showed agreement for this.  The snow showers extended west to Illinois near the developing surface low. So this is on schedule for a turn over this evening, and showers leading to steady light snow overnight.  The only change is that I see a chance of the steady snow into day break and maybe mid day. Will this add up to much more?  I am trying to take my bias out of it, but at least there should be snow on the grass for many of us tomorrow.  I will have some more model discussion on my website:  www.justinweathertalk.com

Of course I will be on ABC2 News Tuesday morning with any sign of snow.  If you have some and take pictures, please send them to me so I can share them.