Our first flakes of the season are on the way

November 17, 10:34 AMBaltimore Weather ExaminerJustin Berk

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This morning's weather map shows the snow showers along with cold air on the way.

Some thought I was crazy last week when I put snow in my forecast.  Now, it's on our doorstep.  In fact, there was a snow shower north of the city yesterday afternoon, but more is on the way.  What a swing from the high of 73F on Saturday...

The cold upper air pattern had produced snow in the Great Lakes... and if you watched the Stealer game Sunday, you saw some of that.  Now a few clipper type systems will swing through.  There is often not a lot of moisture with them, but enough to drop the first coating north and west of the beltway by Wednesday morning. However, a Winter Storm Warning has been posted for the mountains to pick up 6-8 inches.  Can you hear that?  The sound of many snowboads and skis getting their edges tuned..

All of the ingredients will lead to a good chance of stickage (snow sticking on the ground) nearby tonight.

The timing: After Dark

The temperatures: Near or below freezing

The track: Just south will maximize the potential of this little system. 

Here is my best call as of this morning.  I know the ground temperatures are too warm now, but a burst of steady snow- even if light overnight, can change that.  While the grass does tend to get colder first, some roads may cool down for a coating as well. Just watching this thing on the radar- it does look more impressive and I may bump these snowfalls up later today...

I am waiting for the morning package of computer models to trickle in. I also just received fresh snow video from Snowshoe, WV.  I will post that in an afternoon update, so please check back.

Note: The record snow for this date is 1 inch in 1935.  Nov. 18th's record is a trace in 1984- which may be in jeopardy.

For more on the computer models and latest radar/satellite image, check out my web page:  www.justinweathertalk.com