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Is Kavkaz 2009 a prelude to war?
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Kavkaz 2009 is underway. It started on June 29th. According to at least one reliable source, it will end on July 10th. Most other sources report that it will conclude on July 6th.
Kavakaz 2009 is Russia’s largest military exercise since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russian military sources report that 8,500 troops will participate in it and the equipment that will be deployed includes 200 tanks, 450 armored vehicles, and 250 artillery pieces. Deployed in the Northern Caucasus, maneuvering near the Georgian border and involving Russian soldiers garisoned in Georgia from bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Kavkaz 2009 is described as an anti-terrorist exercise.
Russian military experts, including Pavel Felgenhauer, the military affiars reporter for Novaya Gazeta, believe that Kavkaz 2009 might be a setup for another Russian invasion of Georgia.
Here are some of the reasons why Kavkaz 2009 is so suspicious:
In July 2008, Russia had a huge military exercise in the Northern Caucasus, near the Georgian border. It was called Kavkaz 2008. About a week after it concluded, Russia invaded Georgia, deploying the same soldiers and equipment that already had been mobilized for Kavkaz 2008.
Coinciding with Kavkaz 2009, Russia has let loose with a torrent of belligerent pronouncements threatening Georgia.
Soldiers participating in Kavkaz 2009 have been given a pamphlet called “Soldiers; Know Your Enemy.” The pamphlet is about the Georgian army, the enemy.
As described already, Russian military sources characterizes Kavkaz 2009 as an anti-terrorist exercise. Russian civilian sources describe Gorgia’s twice democratically elected president, Mikhail Saakashvilli, as a terrorist.
Georgian deputy foreign minister Aleksander Nalbandov describes Kavkaz 2009 as “a dangerous provocation.” Mr. Felgenauer reports that the greatest danger for a full scale war will be after Kavkaz 2009 concludes on July 10th.
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