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How hot is Al Groh's seat, really?
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Al Groh is on the proverbial hot seat.
There's no doubt about that. After a stunning loss to William & Mary, prognosticators are jumping out of the woodwork to point out that Al Groh is in fact in danger of losing his job as UVa's head football coach. ESPN is saying it. The local press are saying it. They said it before the season and they're saying it with even more fervor now.
This is not original or new. The first "official" shot in the War on Groh was fired in 2007 (though message board grumbling was going on even before then) after a dismal 23-3 loss to Wyoming to open that season. Disgruntled students painted "Groh Must Go" on the University landmark Beta Bridge, and the Al Groh watch began.
Then last Saturday, Groh suffered his first loss at UVa to a Championship Subdivision (formerly Division I-AA) team, and with that, shot to the top of everyone's list of the next coaches to be replaced.
Not so fast.
Groh has been on that proverbial hot seat for a while, as mentioned. And last year, it became clear that it wasn't just media speculation. The Virginia administration overruled Groh on a matter of player discipline normally left to the head coach, kicking embattled quarterback Peter Lalich off the team despite Groh's announcement he would stay. At the end of the season, a 5-7, bowl-less campaign, they turned down the opportunity to extend his contract by one year. Currently it expires at the end of the 2011 season. This may seem like a lot of time for Groh to resurrect his career, but three years is a significantly small amount of time: it's less than the number of years a player is eligible, and provides a weakness for other coaches to exploit on the recruiting trail.
Groh was already, in the eyes of the administration, in need of a successful season to retain his job. If his Cavaliers really are bad enough to lose to an FCS team and it wasn't just the result of a spectacularly unlucky set of events, that will be borne out throughout the season as the losses pile up. In that case, Groh was already in more trouble than we thought. And if Groh pulls off the kind of renaissance he managed in 2007, when the Wyoming loss was followed by a nine-game winning streak, he'll get his one-year extension as called for in his contract and the media will marvel at his Houdini-esque exploits.
So don't write off Al Groh just yet. The loss to William & Mary seems a convenient launching point for a third Groh Must Go campaign, but Groh will be judged on the exploits of a season, not the happenings of a game. If he's fired, then it was going to happen regardless of the outcome of the season's first game. But don't pull the lever yet - Groh's wiggled out of these spots before. He'll get the chance to do it again.
