Democrats declare victory in NY special election

April 1, 7:15 PMNY Government ExaminerMichael A. Harris

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While yesterday's closely watched special election is still too close to call, the Democratic National Committee today declared victory in a memorandum addressed to "interested parties," a copy of which was obtained by The Examiner.

The memo reads:

  Memorandum

  To: Interested Parties

  From: DNC

  Date: April 1, 2009

  Re: DNC: The Special Election in New York's 20th Congressional District

  ============================================================

 

 

 

Last night's Special Election in New York's 20th Congressional District, while still too close to call, is further proof that the public supports President Obama, his jobs and economic recovery plan and the overall direction he is leading the country. Murphy's lead following yesterday's balloting shows that the Republican Party has no new ideas, is tied to the failed policies of the past and that it is in disarray and faces an uphill battle in local and state elections in 2009 and 2010.

 

This race became a referendum on President Obama and his leadership of the country and handling of the economy. Murphy's showing in an overwhelmingly Republican district is affirmation of the direction the President is leading the country.

 

In a district where Republicans hold a significant advantage in voter enrollment (42 percent to the Democrats 26 percent), Republicans still had to invest considerable resources to help Republican candidate Jim Tedisco - who still came up short on election night. The NRCC and the RNC each outspent the DCCC and the DNC, and major surrogates helped Tedisco fill his campaign coffers in a district in which as recently as 2004 Republican John Sweeney defeated his Democratic opponent by over 30 percent.

 

REPUBLICANS HOLD A SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE IN NY20 - AND TEDISCO COULD STILL NOT PULL AWAY

 

Republicans make up 42 percent of the enrolled voters and Democrats comprise 26 percent. Republicans hold a 70,000-voter edge in party enrollment--125,486 Democrats, 196,118 Republicans, and 118,364 unaffiliated voters were registered to vote as of last November's election [Times Union, 3/27/09; Roll Call, 1/28/09; Roll Call, 2/3/09; The Times Union, 2/3/09]

 

Gillibrand Was the First Democrat Elected to the seat in Almost Three Decades and won her first race for the seat against a scandal plagued incumbent in a strongDemocratic year nationally. In 2006, Gillibrand defeated scandal-ridden former Republican Rep. John Sweeney. She was the first Democrat to represent the 20th district since 1979. [Daily News, 2/1/09]

 

REPUBLICANS INVESTED SIGNIFICANT RESOURCES IN ATTEMPT TO RECLAIM NY-20 - AND MURPHY STILL STORMED FROM BEHIND TO LEAD ON ELECTION NIGHT

 

RNC Transferred $200k to New York GOP for Tedisco. On March 18th, the RNC announced it was transferring $100,000 to the New York Republican State Committee. The RNC had already sent $100,000 to the state Republican committee the week before. The RNC is proud to make another investment in our state parties and the hard workers in our grassroots organizations. I am confident this additional investment will help ensure victory in the special election in New York's20th Congressional district, said RNC Chairman Michael Steele. [National Journal, 3/18/09; Associated Press, 3/26/09]

 

Steele Has Campaigned Twice for Tedisco in NY20."Michael Steele, the new Republican chairman trying to get beyond a rocky start, has identified this race as a top target for the Republican National Committee. He has campaigned there twice on behalf of the Republican candidate, James N. Tedisco, a state assemblyman. He has directed money and resources toward winning the seat, which was solidly Republicanuntil Ms. Gillibrand snatched it away from a troubled incumbent in 2006." [New York Times, (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/us/politics/31web-nagourney.html?hp)3/31/09 (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/us/politics/31web-nagourney.html?hp )]

 

Tom Cole: Steele Put More Chips On the Table in NY20 Than Expected. On March 18th, the Politico reported that the race in the 20th district was crucial for RNC Chairman Steele. The Politico reported, The special election comes on the heels of a rough patch for Steele. Former NRCC Chief Rep. Tom Cole said of Steele and the race, he has put more chips on the table than anyone expected. Anytime we shove chips on the table in an obvious way, it raises the profile. [Politico, 3/18/09]

 

NRCC Outspent DCCC for NY 20. As of March 27th, The National Republican Campaign Committee had spent more than $800,000, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent around $575,000. [Times Union, 3/27/09]

 

Giuliani, Romney, Cantor and Sessions Raised Funds for Tedisco. Nationally known Republicans have pledged to help Tedisco raise money, including former presidential contenders Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney; NRCC Chairman Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, and House Republican Whip Eric Cantor. [Daily News, 2/1/09]

 

82 House Republicans Had Written Checks to Tedisco by Mid-March. As of March 16th, 82members of the Republican conference agreed to write checks for Tedisco. It was reported on February 4th, that House Republicans met in a closed-door meeting to raise funds for Republican nominee Jim Tedisco. Delaware Rep. Mike Castle took the lead to make the fund raising ask to Republican Reps. Kevin McCarthy, Mike Coffman, Wally Herger, David Dreier, and Howard McKeon. Each gave $10,000 on the spot for Tedisco. [Politico, 2/3/09; The Hill, 3/16/09]

 

FAULTY REPUBLICAN SPIN ON ABSENTEE BALLOTS

 

The NRCC released a memo today that included an assertion on absentee ballots that defies logic as well as the results of votes cast at the polls in New York 20 yesterday. According to the NRCC, they believe that their candidate will prevail when absentee ballots are counted solely because more Republicans requested absentee ballots than Democrats. Given that logic, and the Republicans 70,000 voter registration edge over Democrats in New York20, shouldn't their candidate have prevailed last night? In fact, the more logical argument is that the absentee ballots are likely to closely reflect the votes cast at the polls giving Murphy the likely advantage considering that he already goes into the counting of absentee ballots with a lead.

 

In addition, a lot more Republicans are voting for Murphy than Democrats voting for Tedisco. Given the current results and party registration in the district, and assuming 90% of Democrats voted for Murphy which is a safe assumption in our view, then at least 20% of Republicans voted for Murphy if independents split their votes.  Therefore, more than twice as many Republicans are voting for Murphy as Democrats are voting for Tedisco - making the NRCC argument on absentee ballots meaningless - and demonstrating why when all the absentee ballots are counted, Murphy will remain ahead and likely expand his lead.

 

DISTRICT DESCRIPTION AND POLITICAL CLIMATE

 

The Republican-friendly 20th lies along the New York's eastern border, stretching from EssexCountysouth to DutchessCounty. The 20th CD holds a Republican registration advantage, and is known for a generally rural conservative constituency. Minorities account for approx. 5% of the district, and the average age is 50.

 

Gillibrand was the first Democrat to hold NY-20 in 28 years with Republicans averaging at least 20 point victories dating back to the mid-90s. In fact, John Sweeney, Gillibrand's opponent in 2006, won his first race in 2002 by 50 percentage points.

 

In 2006 Gillibrand ran an uphill race as a moderate / conservative Democrat. Gillibrand was backed by the Blue Dog Coalition - a group of moderate mostly Southern Democrats. Gillibrand ran a well financed campaign raising and spending nearly $3,000,000. However, if it were not for her opponent's self-inflicted missteps, Gillibrand probably would not have overcome the Republican lean of NY-20.

 

In anticipation for a tough re-election, Gillibrand raised more in 2007 ($2.6 million) than any House incumbent expect Rep. Charlie Rangel.  Gillibrand totaled more than $4.5 million raised and spent during the 2007-2008 cycle.

 

  RECENT DISTRICT 20 RESULTS

  Previous CD 20 Margins for Dem statewide candidates:

  Gore = 47.5%

  Kerry = 46%

  Obama = 51.5%

 

  2008

  Gillibrand - 177,677 - 61.8%

  Treadwell - 109,644 - 38.2%

 

  2006

  Gillibrand - 125,000 - 53.1%

  Sweeney - 110,000 - 46.9%

 

  2004

  Sweeney - 188,753 - 65.8%

  Kelly (D) - 96,630 - 33.7%

 

  2002

  Sweeney - 140,238 - 73.3%

  Stoppenbach (D) - 45,878 - 24%