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Analyst predicts 9% drop in October videogame sales
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Doug Creutz predicts a down October (Cowen Group)
Earlier this year, many analysts predicted a strong holiday would lift overall game sales in 2009 after a slow start. However, the tough economy (and a lack of killer first party titles for Wii that have slowed momentum for that console) is making that prospect increasingly bleak. Analyst Doug Creutz of the Cowen Group predicts October videogame sales will decrease by 9% in comparison to October 2008.
Last year, Fable II (Xbox 360) and Fallout 3 (multi-platform) both experienced large launches in October. This year, rhythm games (recently launched DJ Hero as well as The Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5 from September) largely disappointed and a strong start for Uncharted 2 was not enough to make up the difference. Creutz expects Uncharted 2 to lead October game sales. Borderlands from Take Two, a new franchise which has been heavily advertised, is another strong title for October, with an estimated 500,000 in sales thus far.
But when looking at aggregate sales for the month, console and handheld software is estimated to be down 8% with PC software down a depressing 27%. These projected numbers, along with a string of decreasing sales results over the past few months, almost surely point to a lower 2009 sales compared to 2008’s record $21 billion haul. Analyst Michael Pachter predicts a 5% decrease compared to 2008.
NPD’s Anita Frazier is more optimistic, still projecting the possibility of a flat growth for this year. “Because of how this year has shaped up so far, I would say that it looks more like a year where sales could be more heavily weighted in the back months than average, so the industry ending up flat at $22B isn’t out of the question, she said in a blog post.
With Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 launching tomorrow, November should be a better comparative month for game sales. If MW2 lives up to expectations, November could join September (which was up 1% over 2008) as positive months for growth.
NPD will release its official October results on November 12.
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