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Pakistan: Hope for Afghanistan?

Source: Associated Press

Iran has settled down for the moment which allows us to turn our attention to other things, in particular Pakistan. Pakistan’s importance is hard to minimize. It is the critical ally in the war against the Taliban and especially because it is the only Muslim majority state with a nuclear deterrent.

 

For a long time Pakistan’s resolve with regard to the Taliban and Islamic terrorism was questioned by the media and other nations. We should never forget that the Afghan resistance was armed by the US, funded by the Saudis, and trained by Pakistan’s intelligence. The Islamic madrassas in Pakistan have and are training a generation of new Islamic fanatics who attacked India, fight in Afghanistan, and bomb cities in Pakistan.

 

When the 9/11 attack shook America Pervez Musharaff, the military strongman at the time, was told he could choose: be with us or against us.  The Athenians first explained such a choice back at the beginning of the Peloponnesian War: “The strong do what the wish, the weak do what they must.” Musharraff joined with the US but never seriously dealt with the Islamic infrastructure in his own country. Asif Ali Zardari, the current president of Pakistan seemed to lack the resolve to tackle the problem especially when a deal enabling the imposition of Islamic law in one region was made. Attacks against India and cities in Pakistan seemed to settle the matter and the army was released against the Islamists. The army offensive has now taken it into territory that will upset a political settlement that dates back to the British Raj.

There is a region of Pakistan of northwest Pakistan that is known as the North-West Frontier Province (http://middleeast.about.com/od/pakistan/f/me080907a.htm . Take one step in this region and you might have gone back five hundred years or more. There is no real national presence here; loyalties are personal, tribal, and the vendetta and blood feud are very much alive. It is a region of low literacy and high poverty. When the British controlled the region they made a deal with the tribal leaders: accept our bribes and behave or face collective punishment. This modus Vivendi has lasted ever since and unfortunately, has proved to be fertile ground for Islamic extremism to grow unchecked.

 

If this isn’t a repeat of the British pattern of bribe or devastation Pakistan will have to finally take its ownership of this area seriously. The implications for Afghanistan are significant. Without safe houses and support on the Pakistan side of the border the Taliban’s days are numbered. Al Qaeda already is in the process of abandoning the area for a more welcoming Somalia. Perhaps Afghanistan’s long nightmare begun in the 1970’s is approaching its’ end.