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Tehran: The key is the security forces
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History tells us that revolutions succeed because their security organizations fail to support their government. Iran faces that same moment of truth. Right now it looks as though the mullahs will survive but if the security organs split, it’s anyone’s game.
Consider the following revolutions: France 1789, Russia 1918, and Russia 1991. In each of these cases the solidity of the security forces was critical to the survival of the governments they defended. In France (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution ) the critical moment was when the French Guard, an elite regiment in Paris (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gardes_Fran%C3%A7aises ) supported the revolutionaries. With the active support of a segment of the military the Paris mob felt emboldened to attack the Bastille, and so legend is made.
In Russia the critical moment was in February 1918, a general strike had shut down Petrograd (now Saint Petersburg). Tsar Nicholas II ordered the commander of the local military district to suppress the strikes with force. Initially most of the troops obeyed, but within one day units of the army mutinied and marched with the strikers. Within a month the 300 year old Romanov dynasty ended. (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Revolution_of_1917 ).
Again in Russia, this time in August 1991, there was an attempt to stop the collapse of the Soviet Union. Gennadi Yanayev, the vice president, other plotters attempted to form a “General Committee on State Emergency” and stop the centrifugal forces that were pulling the Union apart. They were opposed by Boris Yeltsen, then president of the Russian SFSR and marchers surrounded the “White House” (the Russian Federation’s parliament building). The plotters ordered special forces units to surround the building and then to attack it. When the moment came, the military refused to obey. The coup collapsed in three days and by the autumn the Soviet Union ceased to exist. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Soviet_Union_(1985-1991) )
So what are we seeing now in Tehran? Over the weekend, there has been a ratcheting up of rhetoric: the extremists in power threatening force and the moderates refusing to back down. Today, the police were called out to break up the protesters and today they did ( http://www.examiner.com/a-2081072~Iranian_police_use_force_to_break_up_protest.html ). But, if the protests increase and/or the police collapse in the face of popular disapproval, what comes next?
For more info: seehttp://www.examiner.com/x-14798-Manhattan-Independent-Examiner~y2009m6d19-Waiting-for
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