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The health care bill passed by the House will never be signed into law
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Democrats in the House passed their health care legislation in a rare (some would say sneaky) Saturday night vote convened by Speaker Pelosi. Now the bill goes to the Senate where, make no mistake, it will be dead on arrival. No Senator has yet declared it so, but the bill violates many standards set by Senators from both parties regarding what they would support in a final bill. The House bill contains many provisions which will represent “a bridge too far” for many Democrat Senators. The bill is also likely to suffer from unfortunate timing and shifting political winds.
Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, D-NV, had indicated he wants states to have the ability to opt out of any public plan. The House bill did not include that provision. However, it does include provisions to slash $400 Billion from Medicare over the next 10 years and a series of fees and taxes on high earners and expensive health insurance plans. This last part has already being opposed by union leaders who know many union plans will end up in the cross hairs. Finally, the bill imposes stiff fines of up to $15,000 or up to 5 years in prison for those who have the means to purchase health insurance but choose not to do so. Senator Joe Lieberman, I-CT, has already indicated he will filibuster any such bill in the Senate.
The timing of the bill also places insurmountable obstacles in its path. That it took so long for the House to finally pass a bill, and that President Obama himself had to address the house and press for passage, only to have the bill squeak through by a mere 5 votes, with 39 Democrat defections, speaks to the level of difficulty the bill will have in the Senate. Couple this with the number of independents and Democrats who fled to Republicans in last Tuesday’s elections, and it seems unlikely many Democrat Senators, who have to face an entire state full of voters rather than the narrow districts House members represent, will stake their political fortunes on such a contentious bill.
The last complication thrown into the mix is the competing bill recently put forward by Republicans. According to estimates by Republicans and the Congressional Budget Office, the Republican bill lowers insurance costs nationwide and cost the Government around $61billion. This is a drastic difference from the Democrat bill which costs at least $1.5 trillion, assuming all the spending cuts remain after reconciliation, and still leaves 18 million uninsured. While the Democrat bill seeks to expand Government control in order to force expanded coverage. The Republican bill seeks to lower the cost of health insurance, making it easier for individuals to cover themselves.
It is beginning to look as if the Senate will not even have a bill to debate until next year, so the only thing we can say for certain is the Senate bill will not look like the House Bill. If the Senate adopts a bill, it must then be reconciled with the House bill. If the Senate bill is as far from the House bill as I suspect, reconciliation could take months, if it happens at all. The more time drags on, the less likely it is that any bill will be sent to President Obama for his signature. Add to the mix the 2010 election cycle and there will be rhetorical sparks flying on Capital Hill.
The bill just passed by the House will never become law; perhaps when the Democrats are forced back to the table they will sit down with Republicans and work out a bill that actually addresses the causes of health insurance inflation in the United States. Then a real discussion of health reform can take place.
The video below is from the massive rally against the House bill held on Thursday Nov 5th, 2009, two days before the House vote. The rally on the steps of the Capital Building was attended by an estimated 20,000 citizens with little prior organization.
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