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Arrowhead points way to bye week
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Was 2008 a fluke for Cassel? AP Photo/Jeff Roberson
Standing with a record of 2-2, the Cowboys are a good example of an average team. The two wins are against teams with a combined record of 0-7; the two losses are to teams that are 8-0. The good news is that this week’s opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, are 0-4. I guess Dallas can’t lose, right? Yes, that is the case. I guess this is when I mention that Sunday will feature throwback uniforms. The Chiefs will wear their old Dallas Texans jerseys and helmets from the early 1960s. Though the game might be played in Kansas City, it will have a significant Dallas feel to it. However, looking at what might be ahead on the weather front, it’s not as Texas-esque. At game time, it is expected to be in the upper 40s. No, it’s not Lambeau Field in January, but it’s colder than the conditions the Cowboys are used to.
If historical trends mean anything -- they don’t but eh, whatever -- the Cowboys have one going for them entering this game. Since the NFL introduced the bye week in 1990, the Cowboys have gone 16-4 in the games that precede the team’s off week -- 10-1 at home and 6-3 as visitors. However, most recently, Dallas dropped a 35-14 decision to the Giants on the road last season. The last meeting between the two teams was in 2005 at Texas Stadium. In a highly entertaining game between two teams battling for playoff spots, the Cowboys won 31-28 after an attempted 41 yard field goal by the Chiefs’ Lawrence Tynes was missed as time expired. This was the same Tynes who spoiled the opener of Cowboys Stadium just three weeks ago. Drew Bledsoe and Kansas City’s Larry Johnson had monster performances, but it was the Cowboys who came out victorious with a Bledsoe touchdown pass to Dan Campbell with just 22 seconds left. The most recent game held in Kansas City was in December of 1998. The Chiefs won that one 20-17. The home team has won the last six meetings.
It’s hard to tell just what kind of team the Chiefs will have this season when you look at just how difficult their schedule is to begin the season. Kansas City opened at Baltimore, and are now in the midst of a four game trek through the NFC East. Next week, the Chiefs travel to DC to play the Redskins, then come back home against the Chargers before getting a week off. That is a tough pre-bye week schedule. It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see the Chiefs miss the playoffs by a long shot, but I don’t think the team is as bad as their 0-4 record indicates. Three of the four teams they have faced are in the top 10 in total defense. Those same three teams -- Ravens, Eagles, and Giants -- are also each in the top 10 in total offense. The Cowboys might be up with those teams on the offensive side, but are only 27th in defense.
Just like in 2005 when the Cowboys last faced the Chiefs, Larry Johnson leads the running attack for Kansas City. Unlike back then, he is nowhere near the force he was in 2005, when he ran for over 1700 yards and 20 touchdowns. He is averaging a paltry 2.6 yards per carry in 2009, has fumbled in each of the past two games, and has yet to find the end zone. As a team, the Chiefs are one of only three without a rushing touchdown. The pass offense looks even weaker. Kansas City has the fourth lowest pass yards per game. But those results could easily be skewed because their last two opponents -- Giants and Eagles -- are first and second in pass defense.
There are a couple of things the Chiefs have going for them in the pass game. One of them is the quarterback. Matt Cassel may not be Tom Brady, but he filled in for him nicely for the Patriots last season after Brady suffered a season-ending injury. Many people might suggest he was put in a great position to succeed with the team that surrounded him. But he is capable of leading an offense. Another positive is the balance of the passing game. The top four receivers on the team are Mark Bradley -- 10 catches, 120 yards, one touchdown; Dwayne Bowe -- 10 catches, 107 yards, two touchdowns; Bobby Wade -- 10 catches, 93 yards, two touchdowns; and tight end Sean Ryan -- 11 catches, 97 yards, two touchdowns. Each is getting about the same amount of looks and it is spread out pretty evenly. The lack of pass defense the Cowboys have displayed for the majority of the season to this point is no secret. The passing balance of the Giants to Mario Manningham and Steve Smith, who combined for 20 catches and 284 yards, burned Dallas. The Chiefs don’t have the same firepower as the Giants. But now with the Cowboys missing starting safety Gerald Sensabaugh due to injury, the Chiefs could still move the ball down the field.
The Chiefs have done a good job of limiting its turnovers, averaging only one giveaway per game. The Cowboys have not done a good job against teams that seldom turn the ball over this season. The Giants and Broncos are both near the top in fewest turnovers. Even the Buccaneers, despite starting 0-4 like the Chiefs, have limited their turnovers. The Cowboys defense was shredded in that Bucs game, despite getting a victory. The one team the Cowboys have faced that turns the ball over a lot is Carolina, and the Dallas defense looked its strongest in that game.
The Cowboys absolutely cannot get caught looking ahead to the bye week. No NFL game is a given, even against a winless team. If the Cowboys don’t come to play, the Chiefs -- wearing their Dallas Texans uniforms -- could deal them a hard dose of reality.
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