Obama’s approval rating is sinking, and that’s OK

February 7, 11:32 PMDC Corporate Ethics ExaminerJim Cunningham

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Obama’s nearly euphorically high approval ratings have come down to more realistic levels. There are some on the Right who are experiencing Schadenfreude at this new statistical revelation. I think they would be much less excited if they analyzed why Obama’s approval rating has dropped.

His rating has dropped because of the disapproval, not of moderates and independents, but of the left of his party.

Personally, I think I’d give him about a B. If enough lefties like me feel the same way, that would account for the change in his approval rating.

Obama reached out to the Republicans in Congress with this stimulus bill. He even listened to Republican nagging and removed several of the items they disagreed with. They voted against it anyway. So, to those of us on the left, the concessions weren’t worth it.

Now, he’s still having items removed from the bill to garner Republican support in the Senate. They’ll probably still vote against it after he does anyway. So, why should us lefties be happy that Obama is catering to Republican desires while they continue to be obtuse about the stimulus despite his efforts?

It’s no wonder his approval ratings are going down. Progressives are pissed that Obama is placing so much stock in what Republicans think, when those same Republicans would be just as happy watching the middle and lower class suffer in the clutches of big business.

Many progressives wish for a stimulus that’s much larger and with fewer tax cuts.

Many progressives wish he’d chosen fewer Republicans and moderates for positions within his administration, not to mention having a severe member of the religious right give the invocation at his inauguration.

Barack Obama was something of a Rorschach test to those of us on the left. We looked at him and hoped he was more like us (even if he did campaign as a moderate) and now that reality is setting in, the polls are reflecting the fact that, more than feeling his embrace, we’re feeling left out in the cold.

Now, I’m not delusional enough to think that my political views are mainstream views. I’m somewhat to the left of Obama on most issues, and I realize that if Obama is making ME happy than he would be failing to make the majority of voters happy. Because of this, his drop in approval ratings is probably a good thing for Obama. It’s quickly becoming clear that he’s not the liberal that Republicans made him out to be before the general election. That which causes a disillusionment from the left gives hope to the majority that are a little to the right of us.

The stronger approval ratings from the left may be fading, but that means the approval of those closer to the center is solidifying.

The people on the right shouldn’t quite be so happy either. With Obama having only a 15% disapproval rating, it seems even Republicans don’t disapprove of him all that much.

Obama will continue to decline from Rorschach approval ratings to something of a sweet spot. Once reached, this sweet spot will demonstrate that he’s not thrilling those on either the left or the right, but solidifying the middle.

During George W. Bush’s presidency, I often observed that, even on his most unpopular decisions, he usually enjoyed steady approval of about a third of Americans – if Bush ate live babies on stage, 33% of Americans would have approved of it, justified it, or otherwise found a way to still give him even soft approval.

So, if you subtract from 100%, that 33% of loyal Bush Republicans, and then subtract 15% of the far left (to match the 15% of the far right that disapprove of him now), the remainder is what’s in the middle. Removing those folks on the left and right, that sets a high water mark for Obama at 52%.

Since you can’t please all of the people all the time, since Obama has some tough decisions to make and will, consequently, have some tough love for America... and since, there will always be some expected level of bad news for people to respond to, and that people’s perceptions of Obama’s job performance will almost always have more to do with their own situation than following the news, let’s start worrying when the remaining segment of America gives Obama less than a “B” grade.

A “B” is 80%, and 80% of that 52% high water mark is about 42%.

My calculations show the sweet spot approval rating for Obama lies between 42% and 52%.

Wow! Looks low, doesn’t it? Yep, 42% is one heck-of-a low approval rating by normal standards and, if he reaches this level, the media will surely have a ball with it. I can almost see the hand-wringing now.

However, let us not forget that 15% I subtracted from his approval rating to account for the far left.

That 15% is going to vote for him again anyway.