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I beg your pardon, but an offer of amnesty might be the only way forward
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U.S. Navy training off the East African coast
(AP Photo/Karel Prinsloo)
As the Somali transitional government struggles to maintain its authority in a country effectively ruled by insurgents, it’s difficult to see where the impetus for a permanent and peaceful solution will come from. An alliance of Islamist militants has recently mounted an intensifying series of attacks on the capital, Mogadishu, and now threatens to completely take over this, the last-remaining government stronghold. As whole regions of Somalia effectively creep beyond the jurisdiction of a UN-backed government, foreshadowing a divided future, the Horn of Africa continues to ram its way into world affairs. Semi-autonomous Puntland, in the Northeast of the country, is not only home to a third of Somali residents, but it’s also one of the most fertile recruiting grounds, feeding a growing wave of piracy off the East African coast. Often young and unemployed, Somali pirates are lured by rich pickings in the Indian Ocean, especially the heavy traffic passing through the Gulf of Aden, to and from the Suez Canal. According to Foreign Policy in Focus, the 100-plus Somali pirate attacks on ships in 2008, represent “a staggering annual increase of nearly 200% in the critical trade corridor linking the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean.” And the attacks have only increased this year. On Sunday, pirates released a Belgian ship, and its Dutch, Filipino, and Croatian crew, after two months of being held hostage. Yet, 12 more ships remain for ransom in those same waters.
In a world increasingly reliant on global trade, the surge in piracy is having a noticeably detrimental effect on the economy. With trillions of dollars at stake, many shipping lines are opting for the relatively safer route around the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing the Suez Canal and the Somali coast altogether. But increases in transportation times, fuel costs, crew salaries and insurance premiums, make this an expensive solution for shippers; expenses which then trickle down the supply chain to consumers, threatening to exacerbate the current recession. And with 10% of the world’s petroleum passing through the Gulf of Aden, pirates also have a direct impact on the fickle price of oil, a driver of global commerce.
On the other side of the continent, another country is painfully familiar with how costs can spiral out of control; Nigeria’s oil production, according to Next.com, has been cut by an alarming 20% in the last three years alone, due to acts of sabotage by the country’s largest renegade group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Nigeria’s president, Umaru Yar’Adua, wary of losing billions more in oil revenue, announced last week that he was offering the rebels amnesty, in a deal that will give them 60 days to hand over their weapons without facing prosecution. Ironically, the United States released a report, soon after, confirming it had just delivered weapons and ammunition to Somalia’s besieged government forces.
Not so surprisingly, America has long been a ‘participant’ in African conflicts. The first war fought by a unified U.S. outside its boundaries, was coincidentally the Barbary War of 1801-1805, a campaign against North African pirates in the Mediterranean Sea. The latter half of the 20th century saw the United States, in the numbing grip of the Cold War, providing Somalia with “tens of millions of dollars in military equipment and aid,” according to the BBC’s Will Ross, and their support for this beleaguered nation has continued intermittently since the end of the U.S.-Russian arms race. Yet, even with the Cold War long since over, the Horn of Africa and its surrounding waters remain key strategic locations. The Economist’s Banyan columnist, this month reported on a resurgence in popularity of the early 20th century geopolitical theories of U.S. naval officer Alfred Mahan, including the belief that control of the world’s sea trade should determine foreign policy. It’s no coincidence that the Chinese and Indian navies are currently amassing weaponry at near-Cold War rates.
Human Rights Watch reacted to Nigeria’s offer of amnesty by asking why many of the country’s politicians weren’t themselves facing prosecution; they were the ones, after all, who’d initially armed vigilante groups to intimidate voters and stir up trouble in the Niger Delta, the same groups that now threaten to destabilize the world. Controversial though it may sound, it makes sense to extend a similar question to the Somali people, notoriously distrustful of foreigners: Should they forget the past, effectively pardoning hawkish American politicians, in order to move forward?
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