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Abbas will not run for re-election
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Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, with President Obama
There has not been an official announcement yet, but his aides say that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will not run for a new term in Palestinian Authority elections slated for January.
Frankly, this isn't much of a surprise. But is it good for the Palestinians? Andrew E. Mathis
First, let's look at Abbas's record. A co-founder of the Fatah faction of the PLO, Abbas first made his name within the Palestinian leadership under the nom de guerre Abu Mazen and became internationally known as the chief negotiator, along with his Israeli counterpart Yossi Beilin, in what was then called Oslo II — the next step in the Oslo peace process that was derailed by the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin and then the election of Binyamin Netanyahu as prime minister the following year.
Abbas had served as the first Palestinian prime minister, having been appointed in 2003 by then President Yasir Arafat. Appointed in March, Abbas stepped down in September, citing "Israel's unwillingness to implement its road map commitments and to undertake any constructive measures," as well as the failure of the George W. Bush administration to exert pressure on the Israeli government of Ariel Sharon to implement changes in its policies.
He also cited "lack of support for the government's policies; harsh and dangerous domestic incitement against the government and the obstruction of its functions, and unjustified accusations that the government and the prime minister had the motive of either having control over everything or nothing."
It seemed obvious at the time that Arafat was holding Abbas back from any real power, and Abbas was also concerned about inter-factional violence among different Palestinian national liberation groups, including Hamas.
Well, here we are six years later and none of this has changed. Not only is Abbas facing an intransigent Israeli government, but the U.S. under President Obama is not pushing Israel hard enough, and with the Palestinian Authority coming under the control of Hamas and the subsequent Fatah-Hamas Civil War that followed have badly hurt Abbas and Fatah.
So not such a great record for Abbas. Perhaps new blood is a good thing. But who's waiting in the wings? Fatah leadership is likely to stay with the old guard of the organization; possible candidates include Ahmed Qurei, who has served as prime minister in the past; Nabil Shaath, who oversaw a caretaker government; Rawhi Fattouh, a former speaker of the Palestinian parliament and interim president; and Saeb Erekat, who has been a chief negotiator for the Palestinians over the last decade. If Fatah goes for a candidate from the younger generation, the likeliest candidate would be former Fatah head in Gaza Mohammed Dahlan.
Hamas has said that it will not field a candidate; in fact, they have warned Gazans that anyone participating in the election will face violent consequences.
There is only one third-party declared candidate at this time: Mohamed Abutair, of Change for Peace in Palestine. But Abutair and his party are both virtual unknowns. The likelihood of there being any electoral success from this party is very small.
It is perhaps possible that the current Palestinian prime minister in the West Bank, Salam Fayyad, may run. He's a member of the Third Way political party. However, since Third Way polled so badly in the January 2006 elections (2.41% of the popular vote), a higher-profile member of the party, e.g., Hanan Ashrawi, could make a realistic run.
My guess is that an old-guard Fatah member will be the next Palestinian president. Ahmed Qurei will probably be the one tapped to run. And will he be successful? As long as the challenges remain the same as they were in 2003 and are now, then the answer is no.
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