Picking Conn Smythe Trophy winner, by the numbers

June 7, 11:59 PMDetroit Red Wings ExaminerMike Mouat

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Chris Osgood has been the first star in five games (AP Photo, Paul Sancya)

As the Stanley Cup Final draws to a conclusion, possibly as early as Tuesday withanother win by the Red Wings who lead the series 3-2, the time has come to get serious about selecting who should win the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs most valuable player.

The award is voted upon by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) at the conclusion of the final game.

There are several Red Wings players who should be considered for the award based upon their performances, while to players have distinguished themselves for Pittsburgh.

Selecting the winner is highly subjective as it is a matter of opinion based on observation. 

However since I am inclined to objective evaluation of key performance indicators I have developed a mathematical formula to determine who should win the award

Applying a points scale to three star selections, often selected by the media including members of the PHWA, is a method of tabulating and summarizing the game-by-game opinions of those who ultimately cast the ballots.

I have chosen to award three points for being selected first star, two points for second star, and one point for third star. I have also chosen to award a player an additional point every game they are selected as a star in order to reward consistent excellence.

Since the Red Wings won Game Five 5-0 to lead the series 3-2, and in the 19 previous times the Stanley Cup Final has been tied after four games, the team that wins the fifth game has gone on to win the Stanley Cup 14 times (57.6%), let's look at their leading candidates.

Through 21 games in the playoffs the Red Wings have had 14 different players selected as a star, highlighting the depth  in their roster. However there have been a few who have distinguished themselves from their temmates with multiple star worthy performances. Here is a ranking of their top five Conn Smythe candidates based on the scoring system outlined above:

 For the Penguins, through 22 playoff games they have had 12 different players selected as a star, but it is really a two-man race between Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin who have both been named a star 10 times. Here are their top five Conn Smythe candidates:

This year's Conn Smythe Trophy winner will be a member of team that wins the Stanley Cup, as there has not been a single performer from either team that would warrant receiving the award over the performance of a member of the winning team.

Please cast your vote for the Conn Smythe Trophy in the polls below.