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Reasons why the 2010 federal elections won'ts hurt Democratic IL state legislators
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Regardless of whether or not the national Democratic Party loses seats in the upcoming 2010 Congressional elections, I strongly doubt it will affect the partisan make up of the Illinois state legislature. This is for a variety of reasons that on the surface may appear to be contradictory. First the Illinois terrain strongly favors the Democratic Party, even more so than the nation as a whole. Also, as I discuss, what happens at the national level has proved to have very little impact on Illinois state legislative elections, at least in recent cycles. Third, the Illinois State Republican Party is still in complete disarray. About 10-15 years ago, Judy Baar Topinka would have cleaned Blagoyevich’s clock, yet she was handily defeated by him in 2006. Lastly, while President Obama has run into a few roadblocks, he is still loved here; voters know a Democratic state legislature would gain more for the state in deal-making with him than Republicans could.
As briefly stated earlier, the Illinois political terrain has strongly shifted to favoring the Democrats. Maybe some people have short-term memories, but like anyone who grew up in this state would tell you it was a Republican bastion for decades, with the exception of the two U.S. Senate seats. These seats were held by two of the strongest Democratic politicians, Al Dixon and Paul Simon. In fact, even at national level politics, Reagan almost won the CITY OF CHICAGO, losing by only 2.5%. Yet, after the Republican Party captured the South, Dixie captured the GOP, and it pulled them sharply to the Right. Illinois, while once dominated by Republicans, they were moderate, Rockefeller-Republican types like Jim Edgar. President Clinton moved the Democratic Party to the Center, and due to his evenly split views, united a coalition in Chicago that included the white ethnic working class and blacks, who were once adversaries based on racial issues. Work to repair racial tensions sundering the city began to succeed. Meanwhile, right-wing Republican candidates such as U.S. Senate candidate Al Salvi murdered the more Edgar-like, moderate Republicans, which in this case was Bob Kustra. The political history of Illinois as a moderate state began shifting to the Democratic column. The Presidency of George W. made the “Clinton Republicans” in Illinois become solidly Democratic.
Let’s say this was not the case. In 2002, for example, because of the stratospheric approval ratings of Bush due to 9/11, nationally, the Republican majority in the U.S. House expanded, and they took back the Senate in a convincing manner. Yet, in terms of Illinois politics, in that same election cycle, Democrats captured not only the Governorship, but many statewide offices as well. The Democratic majority in both Houses was decisive, and had the capacity to successfully pass and enact their policies without needing Republican support. In 2004, Bush won nationwide, improving his popular vote, as well as gaining Senate and House seats, too. This was largely because of cementing the realignment commencing during the civil rights era: the transformation of the Democratic “Solid South” to a “New Right” Republican stronghold. Yet, the Democratic delegation in the Illinois state legislature remained virtually untouched.
The news gets even worse for the Republicans in Illinois State politics. The once seemingly honorable party self-destructed with scandal after scandal. Now, yes, Blagoyevich is a Democrat, but lucky for the Party, his complete cluelessness and grandiosity allowed the Party to repudiate him. He certainly will not be an albatross; the spirit of bipartisanship rose from the dead on this one. Whether it be George Ryan (a Republican I liked), Jack Ryan, you name it, and being left with a very weak, loony, non-resident, Senate candidate such as Alan Keyes, it is almost as if the Illinois GOP wants inflict torture on themselves. Worse yet, the state Republicans never distanced themselves from their fellow Republicans who were found guilty of corruption charges.
Lastly, this is the home state of our President, Barack Obama. While Obama is facing some friction nationally, he is still loved in our state. Being a former state Senator, Obama has great, long-term nurtured ties with Democratic politicians here. Although some may not admit it openly, it is not too difficult to argue that partisan unity between state and federal elected officials are beneficial.
To sum it up, barring a major event that may cause a seismic shift, regardless of how they turn out at the national level, the 2010 elections will probably have a miniscule impact on the state legislative Democratic majority. If anything, for reasons I have discussed, the Democratic dominance of the Illinois State politics could even solidify.
