Prediction: no quick decision in 2009 New Jersey governor race

November 3, 10:17 PMRNC ExaminerGeorge Copeland

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New Jersey Gov. Jon S. Corzine, left, Republican challenger Chris Christie, right, and Independent candidate Chris Daggett are seen at their debate Thursday, Oct. 1, 2009, in Trenton, N.J. While the nation grapples with controversial proposals to reform its health care system, the candidates for governor in New Jersey are sparring over whether to force insurance companies to cover screening tests like mammograms or waive the mandates to cut costs. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

For observers anxious to find out who won the 2009 New Jersey governor's race: patience will be necessary.  It is likely that the race will be called no earlier than Wednesday, and in fact, it is all too possible that the race will fall into Al Franken territory and only be decided after months of protracted litigation.

Closeness of the election
At present, minutes after polls closed in Virginia, the race between Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie is literally tied at 42.0 percent of the vote each and 10.1 percent for Independent candidate Chris Daggett.  Exit poll results from the Associated Press, traditionally the most accurate of all polling, show the race to be a dead heat between Corzine and Christie.

Importance of the election
Fairly or not, many observers see this election as a “referendum” on President Obama’s policy.  New Jersey has not had a Republican governor in three election cycles.  A Democratic defeat on the anniversary of Obama's triumphant election would be seen by many as a stinging rebuke of the President.  For Republicans, on the other hand, a win in this race would be interpreted as the beginning of resurgence after their electoral humiliations in 2006 and 2008.

Voter fraud and ACORN
The political action group ACORN has indicated that it will be heavily involved in mobilizing democratic voters for the election.  ACORN was recently involved in a controversy where it appeared that its employees sanctioned underage prostitution, and the organization is under investigation or indictment in some twenty states for facilitating and participating in voter fraud.  These and other irregularities led to the group being defunded by the House on Sep 17.

Absentee ballot problems
New Jersey law allows individuals to collect absentee ballots.  There have been reports from around New Jersey alleging suspicious or fraudulent behavior with collected ballots, some of which alleged involvement by members of ACORN.  There are also reports that some voters have discovered that an absentee ballot had already been submitted in their names.  The New Jersey Democratic Committee argued to the Secretary of State that all such suspicious ballots should be counted as "provisional".  No decisions on these issues have been reported at present.  However, if the vote is close, expect all such allegations to be brought to light and to become extremely contentious.

"Platoons" of litigation-happy lawyers
Moments ago, in an interview with Neil Cavuto, Karl Rove pointed out that the DNC and RNC each have "platoons of lawyers" ready to mount court challenges.  If there are significant voting irregularities and the vote margin is close, expect protracted litigation.

Highly motivated and politically charged voters
Since President Obama's election, there has been a groundswell of support for conservative electoral candidates, perhaps typified by Fox Network talk show host Glenn Beck and his 912 Project.  For the first time in recent memory, conservative voters are engaging in public demonstrations all across the country.  These new activists have been following the ACORN corruption scandal and are enraged by it.  Give Democratic supporters credit for similar commitment and sensibilities, and the situation on the ground in New Jersey could get very fractious, very fast.

Given these problems, the closeness of the vote, and the importance of the election to both the Republicans and the Democrats, it is possible, if not likely, that the New Jersey gubanatorial election will result in a "perfect storm" that disrupts the election and prevents the determination of a winner for months.

More New Jersey election news
Republican takes early lead in NJ governor race
http://www.examiner.com/a-2302205~Republican_takes_early_lead_in_NJ_governor_race.html

2009 elections: New Jersey governor
http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-15897-2010-Elections-Information-Examiner~y2009m7d1-2009-New-Jersey-Governor-election-examined

NJ governor's race: Candidates at a glance
http://www.examiner.com/a-2297660~NJ_governor_s_race__Candidates_at_a_glance.html

AP exit poll: NJ governor race too close to call
http://www.examiner.com/a-2302087~AP_exit_poll__NJ_governor_race_too_close_to_call.html

Tight NJ governor's race goes down to the wire
http://www.examiner.com/a-2299312~Tight_NJ_governor_s_race_goes_down_to_the_wire.html

== Outlinks ==
2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial General Election: Christopher Christie (R) vs Gov. Jon Corzine (D)
http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/09-nj-gov-ge-cvc.php

AP exit poll: NJ governor race too close to call
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2010194797_apusnjgovernorexitpoll.html

Barack Obama faces triple election defeat on anniversary
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/6480687/Barack-Obama-faces-triple-election-defeat-on-anniversary.html

Glenn Beck - The 912 Project
http://www.the912project.com/

Will Corzine Allies Steal the Election in New Jersey? ACORN, Dirty Tricks and Absentee Ballot Fraud
http://biggovernment.com/2009/11/01/will-corzine-allies-steal-the-election-in-new-jersey-acorn-dirty-tricks-and-absentee-ballot-fraud/

ACORN Aims to Tip New Jersey Election in Corzine's Favor
http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/corzine_new_jersey_acorn/2009/11/02/280632.html

What is the ACORN controversy about?
http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2009/09/16/what-is-the-acorn-controversy-about/

Chris Christie's Next Case: Who Stole My Election?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703932904574511612622116146.html