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September 15, 10:50 AMReal Estate News ExaminerBroderick Perkins

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Expect home prices to drop, overall, another 5 percent in 2010, with double-digit decreases slated for markets like Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas -- once big boom towns now mired in bust.

That's according to a third quarter home price forecast produced by Local Market Monitor, a local market risk analyst for property and mortgage investors.

The Market Monitor also lists the Top 10 and Bottom 10 housing markets for both the large and small Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

Among the largest U.S. markets, those with populations greater than 600,000, the 10 markets with the best expected performance in home prices were:

Baton Rouge, LA
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
Pittsburgh, PA
San Antonio, TX
Syracuse, NY
Wichita Falls, TX

In most cases, these markets where home values are expected to remain level or improve, are among those that did not experience skyrocketing home prices and have also had relatively small job losses over the past year. Home prices in these areas are generally below the US average and have room for growth.

On the other hand, the Top 10 with the worst expected performance were most often once boom towns where speculative buying, inflated home prices, crashing job markets and other factors combined to turn them into virtual housing Dust Bowls.

They are:

Fresno, CA
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Stockton, CA
Tacoma, WA
Tucson, AZ
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book of September 9 pointed out the pluses and minuses of larger real estate districts.

Noting, the "Residential real estate markets remained weak, but signs of improvement continued to be noted," the report said most of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank districts reported sales remain below the levels of a year earlier.

"Reports on house prices generally indicated ongoing downward pressures," according to the report which documents anecdotal evidence from businesses and other contacts who are not Federal Reserve officials.

The report went on:

• Sources from Chicago, Richmond, Boston, and San Francisco observed an up tick in sales over the last six weeks, while sales in the Philadelphia District were described as steady.

• Comments from business officials in St. Louis said residential home sales had not improved.

• In Atlanta, New York, Cleveland, and Minneapolis commenters documented some year-over-year sales gains in select markets.

District area sources noted increased demand was strongest in the low-end of the housing market, where many investors make inroads.

• Sources in Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Richmond, and New York indicated that the first-time home buyer tax incentive was also spurring sales.

• Philadelphia noted an upturn in sales at the high-end of the market.