R.L. Polk & Company predicts auto sales rebound

November 7, 4:23 PMLA Auto ExaminerMichael Anson

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The automobile market in the U.S. and much of the Western World is at a low point. Will it stay that way? There is a new prediction from the well-known market research firm of R.L. Polk & Company that provides some insight.

Even with the expensive boost provided by the federal government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program, 2009 will still be an extremely dreary year for the auto industry in the U.S. Sales of cars and light trucks are expected to reach only 10 million units in 2009; that’s a big loss from the 17 million sales units the automakers enjoyed for the past several years. What R. L. Polk & Company is predicting is a “U-shaped” recovery for the U.S. auto market and a return to 15 million sales in 2013. The company claims this sales number will mark a return to “more normal” sales levels.

In addition to the prediction in overall U.S. sales, Polk & Company says the market for Japanese brands will stabilize at a level of 40.1 percent of the market in 2013. This is currently the market share in the U.S. for Japanese brands, so it should provide some solace to the beleaguered U.S. automakers, two of whom dipped into bankruptcy earlier this year.

Polk also predicts a wider sales split between passenger cars and light trucks in the coming years. They say passenger car volume will reach 8.3 million units. They also say that by 2011, lack of sales in the previous years will mean that 10 million fewer vehicles (under the age of four years) will be in operation than there are now. What that means is that we will see more older vehicles on the road in the near future. And that means the owners of those vehicles will need parts and service to keep them running.