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Broncos trip to Atlanta a must-win?
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(AP Photo / Ron Schwanes)
Putting too much emphasis on a game in November, the 11th of the season, can be a dangerous proposition. After all, championships aren't determined prior to Thanksgiving, or so the cliche goes. But this Sunday's Broncos game, a showdown with the resurgent Falcons in Atlanta, could very well determine if Denver is going to be playoff bound in 2008.
To see why, it's important to venture out onto another slippery slope -- the practice of looking ahead at the schedule. More specifically, try to map out a path to nine wins for either the Broncos or their closest competitor in the AFC West, the San Diego Chargers. Because believe it or not, that's all it's going to take to win the division.
Currently, Denver sits in first place at 5-4. Thus, they only need to find four wins during their final seven games. But without winning at Atlanta, their schedule doesn't exactly map out as an easy road to nine victories. Denver doesn't want to need a win in the season finale at San Diego. But without winning in Atlanta, it'll be hard to avoid that fate.
Here's the road map:
Week 12 - Oakland: The Broncos had better beat the Raiders at Invesco Field. Otherwise, they don't deserve to be a playoff team. (W)
Week 13 - at New York: The Jets are suddenly the top team in the AFC East, thanks to their win at New England, a place where Denver lost by 34 points. (L)
Week 14 - Kansas City: See Oakland game. A must-win, but a team that is playing better. But the Broncos will avenge the early season loss at KC. (W)
Week 15 - at Carolina: Denver has fared well against the NFC South, pending this week's trip to Atlanta, but the Panthers are a first-place team. A tough road game. (L)
Week 16 - Buffalo: The Bills have faltered of late. After being one of the last remaining undefeated teams in late September, they're basically a .500 team. (W)
That's 3-2 in the five games between Sunday at Atlanta and the finale at San Diego. That gets Denver to eight wins, meaning they'll need to beat the Falcons or Chargers to get to nine. Which is more likely?
As for the Chargers, they too face an uphill battle. At 4-5, their margin for error is virtually nil. But a gauntlet of a schedule remains:
Week 11 - at Pittsburgh: The Steelers aren't going to lose back-to-back games at home. (L)
Week 12 - Indianapolis: The key to the season. If the Bolts don't beat the Colts, getting to nine wins may be impossible. (W)
Week 13 - Atlanta: In San Diego, the Chargers can handle the Falcons. (W)
Week 14 - Oakland: A must-win on a Thursday night. (W)
Week 15 - at Kansas City: The Chiefs took San Diego to the wire in San Diego, making this December showdown in KC interesting. (W)
Week 16 - at Tampa Bay: A cross-country trip. An early game. The Buccaneers will probably need a win. (L)
That gets San Diego to eight wins prior to the game against the Broncos, meaning a win at home would get them to nine.
Denver doesn't want the finale to be a battle between 8-7 teams. If it is, they're most likely be on the outside looking in at the playoffs. In order to avoid that fate, a victory at Atlanta on Sunday is probably a necessity.
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