Why Holliday and the Phils may not be a match

November 7, 10:30 AMPhiladelphia Phillies ExaminerPatrick Gallen

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Will Holliday end up in red pinstripes?  Hopefully not.

Shedding your entire farm club, plus your gold glove-winning centerfielder, for a guy who may leave in a year doesn’t exactly sound all that enticing.

Sorry to once again be the bearer of bad news, but the Matt Holliday rumors that surround the Phillies this week are a bother.  Reports are that the Colorado Rockies would start with either Shane Victorino, one of the players responsible for your newly minted World Series title, or Jayson Werth, another standout on the championship team.  

But that would just be the first of the many commodities the Rockies would ask for.  Next on their list would be to suck the future stars out of the Phillies farm system.  Carlos Carrasco and J.A. Happ are the top two pitching prospects, and they undoubtedly would have to be included in any transaction with Colorado.  Throwing in a Jason Donald or Lou Marson may also be a must, this all being for a stellar outfielder that has averaged 32 home runs and 113 RBI’s the last three years.

The numbers look spectacular, and on the surface they are…of the moon.  That is basically where Holliday plays 81 of his games; at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado, a mile above sea level.  To compare is to the weightless surface of the moon may be a stretch, but his home/away splits don’t lie.  Holliday is a career .357 hitter at home, compared to just ,280 on the road.  He also has hit 40 more home runs at home and knocked in 141 more runs in his career from Coors than anywhere else.  

Now Citizens Bank Park is no pitchers park, this much we know.  However, can you really pay that steep a price for someone who has no intention of staying.  Holliday’s agent is Scott Boras, one of Satan’s minions, and he usually advises his players to test the market in hopes of securing a big-time long-term deal.  You can bet that Holliday will be heeding his advice after the 2009 season.

On the other hand, prospects usually don’t work out.  Carrasco may be a bust and have no use, and Happ could be a mediocre starter this season if he is promoted to the rotation full-time.  Marson could be ready to catch, at least in a backup role, but the lifespan of a catcher varies in this league.  Donald is a project, but has looked great in the Arizona Fall League.  Wouldn’t you rather see the Phillies try and keep an already shaky farm system intact, rather than blow it up for a player who, while incredibly talented, will cost way too much?

This point is moot of course if Pat Burrell remains with the Phillies in the off-season.  It is still one of the many possibilities for left field, including moving Jayson Werth over and using a platoon of Matt Stairs and Geoff Jenkins in right.  

There are also a few free agents out on the market that may tickle the Phils fancy.  They have long liked Rocco Baldelli, and the Phillies got to see a lot of him during the World Series as part of the Tampa Bay Rays.  One negative surrounding the uber-talented Baldelli is his myriad of health issues.  Last season he played in just 28 regular season games due to a mitochondrial disease that caused major fatigue. If Burrell and Holliday are both off the market in the coming weeks or months, signing a guy like Baldelli to platoon in the outfield would make sense.  He could still give you 90 games, plus is a great bat off the bench.  

Another name is Milton Bradley.  The guy has been known to be a hothead, but you can’t deny his talent.  This past season he was named to the American league all-star team, finishing with 22 home runs and 77 RBI’s.  He is another guy that can’t stay healthy (has played over 100 games just twice), but could be a cheap platoon option that would fill the hole left by Burrell.  

There is also Greg Golson.  The Phillies farm hand did not quite look ready during his cameo appearance in September, but there is no telling what this winter could bring.  Golson is a speedster and is ultra-talented, so Ruben Amaro and the Phillies brass cannot overlook this youngster either.

There are many ways this could all pan out for the Phillies.  However, one way it should not go is due West.  They cant give up Victorino or Werth to Colorado and they cant give up on their all-important prospects who could play a vital role in the next two or three seasons.  Granted the ultimate goal is to win as may championships as possible, but not at the price of a Matt Holliday.  Phillies fans should have faith, though, that new GM Amaro will do the right thing.

So who will it be; Burrell, Holliday, Golson, or someone else?  It’s going to be a tricky winter in Philadelphia.