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Fantasy baseball mock draft - 2009
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Utley should be a Top 10 on draft boards.
A couple weeks ago, I was just so excited for the start of baseball, that I went out and I completed a Yahoo, 5x5 head-to-head, 12-Team draft… AND I was blessed with the #1 pick…
Although I did not have a preference as to where I would like to draft this year (I almost always prefer the last spot, to get the double-dip on the snake draft), I was very content to take Han-Ram with the #1. With the news of A-Rod's hip... I am very glad I didn't go with him. I am a Red Sox fan, but the rule of thumb is favorite players and enemies can still win you fantasy leagues.
My idea is that every fantasy manager needs to go into every draft with the philosophy of drafting a winner. Now, this philosophy applies to managers who have tiers of players… and are planning ahead of when they are going to be able to grab those players. Draft smart. No draft can go 100% accurate to the way you plan it out, but you should consider yourself lucky to get 50% of the guys you want in every draft… It’s science!
Let me share some quick incite:
Everyone who knows me –and now for those of you who don’t- I have a man crush on Chase Utley. I just love the guy (as a fantasy player, but I’ve heard he’s a nice guy, as well). I strive to try and get him in every draft, league, whatever. I’ll draft him, trade for him, or pick him 5-10 picks too early. He’s a great player, and he fills up a 2nd base position that traditionally does not have a lot of depth. He wins me leagues. He is arguably a Top 5-10 player every year, since '05. This year, like the past 3, I have Utley rated as the #1 2B, right in front of Pedroia, and then Kinsler, on my Top Tier of 2-baggers. The injury doesn't concern me as much as it does other people.
As you will see in the draft below, according to my personal rankings, I should not have been able to draft Utley with the last pick in Round 2... but sometimes the unexpected happens, and that holds true for drafts more so than anything. Good players will slip, for the possibility of a hot starting sophomore like Longoria, or a hopeful repeat of an MVP season like Pedroia. Either way, you need to try and capitalize on those opportunities. Some people could, and will, argue that Utley at 24 is not a bargain or a steal that early in a draft. But for me… knowing where he traditionally finishes on Player Raters and end-of-season rankings… that was one of the best picks of my whole draft.
Continuing with the drafting strategy, I was using a little of the BOA (Best Option Available) method along with my rankings (which I encourage people to use their own personal rankings) in relative conjuncture with already provided rankings. I decided to leave pitching alone for the first 6 rounds, and then when I knew the offensive super-stars were fizzling out, I went pitching strong for 6 rounds. I was very pleased with the results. Please check ‘em out below… with notes! Numbers are Round, then Overall Pick.
1-1: Hanley Ramirez, SS - It was either him or Pujols. I decided to go with steals and lack of depth at SS, over power, RBI, and a deep 1B position . Very glad I didn't take A-Rod.
2-24: Chase Utley, 2B - He is the top of the 2B draft class... this was an easy decision.
3-25: Jason Bay, OF - I took him a little early from where he was rated, but after Josh Hamilton, Carlos Lee, and Magglio Ordonez went... I wanted to make sure I had a 100/30/100 guy in my outfield.
4-48: Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B - To me, Youk's value is right where it should be... he'll be the 6th or 7th best 1B at the end of the year (2nd tier) and he's eligible at 3B.
5-49: Russell Martin, C/3B - Brian McCann had gone 4 picks before me, and I am a manager who goes for the gold at the catcher position and doesn't use the last pick of the draft on a catcher. Plus, I have Martin higher than McCann, Mauer, Soto, and V-Mart for SB's alone.
6-72: Garrett Atkins, 1B/3B - Exact same philosophy here as Youk... 7th or 8th best 3B, and eligible at 1B.
7-73: Francisco Liriano, SP - Time to build my rotation. I need a good starter to anchor down my staff, and Liriano is a perfect candidate for bounce-back year.
8-96: Josh Beckett, SP - I've always liked Beckett, and in a 5x5 league with WINS, K's, and WHIP important... he is a good #2.
9-97: Jon Lester, SP - I don't think Lester's best stuff was done last year... I think THIS is THE YEAR.
10-120: Carlos Marmol, RP - Gut call here, but I've got Marmol in my top 3 closers. K's, ERA, WHIP, and of course SAVES. He finishes with 40, easily. Gregg was an insurance policy for Chicago.
11-121: Brain Fuentes, RP - I like to draft high K closers. They contribute to WHIP and K's more than you might think... 30+ SV for a good Angels team.
12-144: David Price, SP - This may have been my worst (or best) pick of the draft... too high for a sleeper, but too low for a gem (and Scherzer already went last round). Time will tell...
13-145: Nelson Cruz, OF - I like this kid. Well, he's not really a kid, but I like his upside. Power potential is through the roof.
14-168: Pat Burrell, OF - This was a safe pick. I needed a 3rd OF and I know what I am getting with his .250 AVG, about 25HR , and around 80 RBI... I can live with that.
15-169: Justin Duchscherer, SP - When he was on last year, he was lights out. Repeat season doubtful, but I'll take the low WHIP and 12 wins.
16-192: John Smoltz, SP - Low risk, high reward. Starting in June, I could have the best SP in the AL East active and rolling... or a beached whale.
17-193: Placido Polanco, 2B - JIC (Just in case) pick... job security for Utley.
18-216: Heath Bell, RP - Again, I like K closers. WHIP and ERA will be a little high, but I know how valuable Hoffman was to fantasy teams... so too could be Heath Bell.
19-217: Huston Street, RP - I like to grab closers late (K's are important)... I thought about Devine or Ziegler here, but Street has the job for now (Corpas is setting up). If I end up cutting him, I don't care.
20-240: Cameron Maybin, OF - I am curious to see how he starts off the season. If he stinks, he's cut... If he goes off, he's trade bait. Upside galore.
21-241 Mike Lowell, 3B - See John Smoltz... he could hit 20/100 OR 15/75... either way, it's cheap in Round 21.
C - R.Martin
1B - K.Youkilis, G.Atkins
2B - C.Utley, P.Polanco
3B - G.Atkins, K.Youkilis
SS - H.Ramirez
OF - J.Bay
OF - N.Cruz
OF - P.Burrell, C.Maybin
Util - M.Lowell
SP - F.Liriano
SP - J.Beckett
SP - J.Lester
SP - D.Price
SP - J.Duchscherer
SP - J.Smoltz
RP - C.Marmol
RP - B.Fuentes
RP - H.Bell
RP - H.Street
Well that raps that up, I like what I did with this team... and I expect to be in top 3 contention all the way until the playoffs.
Mouth, out.
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