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'Knocking heads together' like LBJ won't solve Obama's Senate problem
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Congressman John Conyers, who was first elected to Congress from Detroit in 1964, has advised President Obama to get tough on health care and "start knocking heads together" like LBJ. Assuming that he referring to the way that LBJ passed Medicare in 1965, there are several reasons why that would not work for President Obama in 2009. One major difference between LBJ and Obama is that LBJ had been the "Master of the Senate", while Obama was never heralded as a tremendous legislator. An even more important distinction is that LBJ had even wider margins in the House & Senate than Obama:
1965 Lyndon Johnson (Democrats) - 295 House, 68 Senate
2009: Barack Obama (Democrats): 258 House, 58 Senate + 2 Independents (Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman). Joe Lieberman, of course, is not a reliable for the Democrats.
In the Senate, it takes 60 votes to invoke cloture, or break a filibuster. If Obama had 68 Senate Democrats to work with, the health care debate might have been resolved already. The same argument applies to FDR as well: in the 75th Congress, which lasted from 1937-1939, the Senate had an astounding 75 Democrats to 17 Republicans! The rules in the Senate make it easy to derail legislation if only one party supports it, and it has been that way for a long time.
That kind of massive party advantage rarely happens anymore: the last time either party had more than 60 senators was 1979. If they are going to adhere to the rule that requires 60 votes to get anything done, 'knocking heads together' is not going to win over this Senate. There are several moderate Senate Democrats who are worried about being re-elected, and they had not exhibited any signs of being swayed by heavy handed manuevers like the ones that Conyers is discussing. In the House, 39 Democrats did not vote for the bill, or 15% of the caucus. In the Senate, that would amount to 9 senators, which is why the Senate bill will be watered down compared to the House.
If anything is passed, it will likely be after an agonizing process that lasts for months, and produces legislation that virtually no one is thrilled with. Passing a bill through the Senate, with the rules and numbers as they exist in 2009 will be very difficult for President Obama, and to think that there is a way to make it much easier is to indulge in fantasy.
