Twins and Tigers to play one game to decide playoff fate

October 5, 9:51 AMMLB ExaminerAlex Brown

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AP Photo/Paul Sancya

What takes most teams 162 games to decide, will come down to just one game for the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins.  Of course, it’s the 162 previous games that has brought each team to this point, but the fact remains that a long season of baseball will now come down to one game for these two teams.  What can we expect from each?

The Twins won the season series with Detroit, so the one-game playoff will take place at the Metrodome, where the Twins enjoy a good amount of success.  Opponents (especially young players) have difficulty in this kind of environment due to the different playing surface, exaggerated crowd noise, and lighting.  Recently, rookie Tigers outfielder Don Kelly misplayed a ball after getting it lost in the Metrodome lighting – eventually costing the Tigers a win in the game, which perhaps would have made this playoff unnecessary.
The pitching matchup will be Scott Baker (MIN) against Rick Porcello (DET).  It’s hard to say who has the clear advantage in this one – both pitchers have had some success and failure this season.  Here are the important statistics for each:

Baker (versus the Tigers): .333 BAA, 6.75 ERA in 4 starts
Porcello (versus the Twins): .299 BAA, 3.09 ERA in 4 starts

Baker (at the Metrodome): .240 BAA, 4.55 ERA in 16 starts
Porcello (at the Metrodome): .349 BAA, 6.30 ERA in 2 starts

Baker has been pretty bad against the Tigers this season, but he did get a big win in Game 4 of their recent four game series to force the split.  Porcello has been at the Metrodome this season, which could be expected for a rookie pitcher.  However, since two games in the park is hardly an adequate sample size, I’m giving the edge on the mound to the Tigers. 

While the Tigers win the mound matchup, the Twins offense is head and shoulders above their opponent.  Led by MVP candidate Joe Mauer, the Twins have been red hot offensively as of late.  Michael Cuddyer (32 HR, 94 RBI) and Jason Kubel (27 HR, 102 RBI) are also game changing players who help lead the Twins’ attack.  Even Delmon Young is starting to show better pitch selection and become an offensive threat – his newfound consistency really lengthens the Twins lineup.

Detroit on the other hand hasn’t had much to speak of offensively all season.  Miguel Cabrera is their best hitter, but he has disappeared somewhat lately (.192 AVG, 1 RBI in his last 7 games).  Magglio Ordonez, Placido Polanco, and Carlos Guillen remain professional hitters, but each has fallen off considerably from their 2006 form.  Brandon Inge, Curtis Granderson, and Marcus Thames are all hit or miss, and Gerald Laird and Adam Everett are nearly automatic outs.

With the Metrodome factor in play, and the fact that the Twins have dominated just about everybody to put themselves in this position, it’s hard to bet against them in this one-game playoff.  After forcing a similar situation last year and coming up short, you’d have to believe that they won’t let this opportunity slip away again.