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The aftermath of the Mumbai attacks
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FBI investigators arrive in India
Who was behind the attacks in Mumbai? What were their motives? Trying to answer these questions can be an exercise in trying to rationalize the irrational. Regardless of the result the perpetrators, trainers and financiers were hoping to achieve, let's look at what they're likely to get.
India will certainly ramp up its own security. The Indian people are outraged at the government's lack of preparedness and the seemingly chaotic response. The situation is similar to U.S. citizens reactions to our own government's response to the Katrina disaster in New Orleans.
Pakistan is now in a position where they have to make a clear choice between appeasing radical terrorist organizations and ignoring their ties to elements within their own intelligence agency or getting on board the global war on terror; making a real, cooperative effort to eliminate these threats. That's no contest. The Pakistani government needs the civilized world much more than it needs the terrorists. There will be more cooperation between the U.S., India and Pakistan in fighting groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Taliban, Al Quaida and their sympathizers.
Muslim leaders around the world are condemning the attacks and violence perpetrated by radicals in the name of their religion in general. They don't want to be seen as blood thirsty, homicidal maniacs. The terrorists gained no ground there either.
The targets had no apparent strategic value. The lone surviving attacker, Ajmal Qasab, has told authorities that he and 9 other young men were instructed to simply shoot and kill as many people as possible. They were hoping to kill as many as 5,000. They were also instructed to kill as many whites as possible, especially Americans and Britons.
The results were tragic and horrific, but it's hard to see how they actually advanced the cause of the perpetrators in any way. In fact, it would seem that it's made their position worse. It's entirely possible that whoever is behind the attacks didn't think it through very well or maybe they had no particular strategic goal other than creating some chaos. It's also possible that the elements that financed or encouraged the operation had goals totally separate from those of the trainers and executers of the plan.
We'll have to rely on international investigators to follow the facts, wherever they lead and at least bring some justice to the individuals responsible. Making sense of the whole thing is probably impossible, as logical, rational thought probably never entered into it.
