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Futurist predicts America's collapse within four years
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Catchy headline right? ..and true. Popular and, up to now, very accurate trend forecaster Gerald Celente predicts that by 2012 America will achieve 3d world status.
The good news is, he's wrong on this one. Lousy economy? Yes, but more like the 70's than the 30's. What's playing out now is an economic forrest fire. Business models that have succeeded during times of easy credit and rapid cash flow are now going to have to adjust to a climate where you have to actually create value and exercise cash flow discipline. There will be quite a few who don't make it. That's because it's been over 30 years since the last major purge.
When everyone is playing with other people's money, the trick is simply to get yourself in the middle of some cash flow and keep a bit for yourself as it passes through. That game is over for a while. The markers have been called in.
However, like a forrest after a fire, life will come back to the markets. Businesses that make a buyer feel like they've walked away from a transaction with more than they came in with, will survive and eventually thrive. Value producing business models will be emulated and the economy will get healthy again, until credit gets easy again.
The only way Celente's predictions come to pass is if America's capacity to change is somehow greatly inhibited. I'm not suggesting that the American people, and government don't make major blunders, just that our system enables us to rapidly change course once reality finally sets in. I expect government to overreact, over-regulate and over-reach in the short term. I also expect the American public to clean house in government in the intermediate term, and I expect America to survive and thrive in the long term.
So why should you believe little ole' me over a world famous soothe sayer? Because there's no value in promoting and embracing despair. And in this environment, if you're not creating value, you need to get out of the way. More importantly, because I'm right and he's wrong. Bookmark this entry and mark it "2012 prediction". If you're still able to access and respond to by then, I win.
