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Madagascar's politics in turmoil
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Andry Rajoelina enters the capital in victory (Jerome Delay/Associated Press)
Madagascar is in crisis. For months, the country has been held in suspense as Andry Rajoelina, mayor of the capital Antananarivo, challenged elected president Marc Ravalomanana. The battle, fought on the streets and in politicians' backrooms, has paralyzed the country, causing damage in particular to Madagascar's tourism industry. Cut off from other land masses, Madagascar's flora and fauna traveled its own unique evolutionary path, and draws thousands of tourists every year.
Rajoelina's populist message touched a chord among many Malagasy, who watched as oil and mineral wealth poured into state coffers but did nothing to relieve the country's ubiquitous poverty. As food prices spiked in 2008, the former President made a fortune through his expansive business interests. The combination of corruption and incompetence provided the impetus for Rajoelina to call massive protests in January and February using his own television and radio stations to mobilize supporters. The rash 34-year-old mayor promptly declared himself the new head of state. The army responded with bullets, putting an end to the protests and the lives of more than 100 individuals.
The show of force polarized the military. Mutinies were uncovered and coups prevented. The army resented President Ravalomanana for ordering them to shoot civilians, but many considered Rajoelina an upstart with connections to past regimes or foreign powers. As the military wavered, the two men jockied for control. Realizing his position as untenable, Ravalomanana resigned and handed power to the military. They promptly installed Rajoelina as President, ending a domestic crisis and causing an international one. Some countries cut off aid, and the AU considered expelling Madagascar from the organization. In the end, Madagascar's status, like that of Guinea and Mauritania who have also had recent coups, is in limbo.
Now that the Cold War is over, the West has developed a conscience. More often than not, when an African leader dies a free-for-all ensues with the powerful rising to the top. Western nations suspend aid, but otherwise cannot foist democratic practices onto sovereign nations. With China supporting rogue regimes, the UN does not impose harsh sanctions, and the AU is hesitant to establish a precedent of activism lest it come back to bite member nations. The AU and regional organizations like ECOWAS and the SADC have the potential to be counterweights to authoritarian tendencies, but lack the institutions and the authority to apply significant pressure. Much of Africa's progress in democracy depends on African leaders encouraging good governance and punishing offenders. The trend has been increased action by the African Union, but much more still needs to be done if Africa is to remain democratic on the fringes as well as in the progressive core.
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