
One year ago this month, an excellent piece was published in Campaigns and Elections magazine and written by John Zogby. It forecast November's landslide election by uncovering a growing shift in voter philosophy.
From the article:
"The rise of the independent voter coincides with a dramatic increase in the level of distrust in the current political system, including the two major political parties... After a decade of hyper-partisanship, they want change. They are hungry for a leader who can unite the nation... The anger we have seen in Iowa and New Hampshire was palpable."
Indeed, throughout the election season, I analyzed the sharp differences in how the major campaigns were being run: Politics of Division versus Politics of Unity. Political persuasions aside, there was no real debate on which side was using which tactics.
Dividing America between the "real Americans" and "fake Americans" had worked in the fearful days after 9-11, but according to Zogby's findings, it began to run its course:
"Voters have given us every indication that they are tired of the bickering. They want solutions. They want good management. They want someone who will not fight with the opposition, but instead will work with the opposition. They want a commander in chief."
This also explains the civil war among Republicans, between those wishing to blame moderates for their loss, and those who see that any future Republican victory (and 2016 is as early as we can reasonably forecast that) will depend on moving back to center, finding common ground, and speaking of unity rather than pitting Americans into cannibalistic in-fighting with each other.
Zogby's excellent augery even demonstrated the cursory similarities between Obama, McCain, and Huckabee, each whom began with a populist message. The self-destruction of Huckabee came when his rhetoric turned rabid with religiosity, and McCain -- unfairly in most cases -- was described as being Bush's third term. In my estimation (as I''ve written throughout) McCain's own record of being a moderate and an independent voice was tanrished by his choice of running mate and, frankly, some very bad advice by people still stuck in the Rovian mindset when such a mindset was going out of fashion.
From the article:
"...the political center has been “reborn.” And independent voters are a big part of that."