Analysis: Implications of Virginia's Governor Race

Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds

I appeared on NewsChannel 8’s Live This Morning with Dave Lucas to discuss the Virginia Governor’s race. Republican Bob McDonnell is leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by 50% to 43% in the latest poll. The two candidates debated on television Monday.

During that debate, Creigh Deeds seemed more focused and clear in his answers. There was a lack of personal attacks. His campaign has used a 1989 thesis that McDonnell wrote to claim the Republican candidate has outdated views on women in society. However, the repeated attacks have hurt Deeds. His apparent lack of clarity on taxes and transportation funding in the past has been highlighted by GOP ads.

On the set today, Dave and I laughed at the irony of Deeds and what appears to be a conflict of interest. His first name is Robert, but when you see him written in national newspapers it is printed "R. Creigh Deeds." Virginia Democratic Chairman C. Richard Cranwell is another guy with the same problem ! These men have to simply choose a first name and get rid of their initials, even if they have to legally change their names. If they are confused about which name to use, how can voters trust them to be decisive about other more important issues. It just creates unnecessary and stupid questions.

The White House has taken a 'wait and see' attitude with Deeds, and that does not help the candidate’s chances of catching up. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs has come across as luke warm on this issue when asked whether President Obama will make a last minute campaign push for Deeds.

Both candidates’ have ideas on how to improve transportation. McDonnell’s plan is 19 pages. The challenge is how to fund these plans. He wants to deregulate Virginia’s Alcohol Beverage Control (ABC) and sell stores creating a privatized system. McDonnell hopes this will generate $500 million for the Virginia and highly unlikely. I doubt a McDonnell administration will make this money since Virginians just don’t drink enough to generate this high dollar revenue. There would also be a net loss in the ABC stores closing. Creigh Deeds, on the other hand, has a five page plan raising transportation funds through a gas tax. This is an unpopular option as the recession continues, with no relief in sight. This leaves Virginians weary about new taxes. Neither candidate has an estimate of how many jobs would be generated under their transportation plans.

Meanwhile, Ed Gillespie is running McDonnell’s campaign and that creates some questions and should draw the Democrats concern.  Gillespie and his political cronies got very rich overseeing major government no-bid contracts and other pay-offs that got America into so much debt. During eight years of George W. Bush, the national debt was raised by $4 trillion, an increase of 71.9 %. Holding onto power to the very end, Ed was one of the last to leave the Bush White House. I’ve covered Ed Gillespie extensively over 7 years and his diversity outreach programs have always failed. Don King and Gillespie toured the U.S. to attract so called black conservatives. The problem is King is not a role model in the black community. He is also a convicted criminal. McDonnell would never involve Don King in his campaign.

So why would McDonnell associate his candidacy with Gillespie? Even more troubling, will McDonnell have a minority friendly administration? As chairman of the Republican National Committee, Ed Gillespie did not. With Gillespie, minority political appointments were slashed in half during the Bush Administration and federal affirmative action hiring programs were quietly ended, according to a study by the New York Daily News. When I mentioned this in a question at the White House briefing, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs seemed oblivious to these efforts to displace African-Americans. Later in a conversation with Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton, I sensed his lack of familiarity with Maryland Republican leaders ending the first Conservative Hispanic Caucus in America over a request for a single job in the Ehrlich administration. This lack of awareness of what is at stake and might be contributing to the slow White House response to Deeds’ troubled campaign.

The far right seems to be relishing a potential McDonnell victory. The Washington Post reported that Sarah Palin’s former Press Secretary Meg Stapleton said McDonnell asked for their help with the Virginia campaign. So Palin is working hard to associate herself with a potential McDonnell victory claiming he needed her to win. This is bad news for McDonnell because Palin could make a future announcement suggesting he would be her VP choice for 2012. Like Gillespie, Palin has an appetite for the national stage and access to the federal budget, America's national treasure for greedy politicians. Palin has also deserted her role as Governor of Alaska; like Gillespie dumped the GOP cause after joining the Bush White House. These political characters are out for themselves and they don’t really care about the greater population. I doubt a Palin ticket could win even if she were a Vice Presidential candidate again. However, Palin will not simply go quietly in the night.

Meanwhile, popular right-wing extremists like  radio host Rush Limbaugh do not encompass the whole Republican base. Even if Rush’s whole audience voted for a Republican candidate that would not be enough to win a national election. So Michael Steele cannot afford to galvanize this angry mob of the GOP and hope to gain national consensus with people who bring guns to these Obama rallies. Instead the GOP has to court Moderate Republicans and embrace Independent voters.

In order for Deeds to recover in the governor’s race, the Washington Post Opinion section would need to endorse him over McDonnell. Then Obama would have to blaze a trail throughout Virginia, galvanizing black voters to go to the polls and vote for Deeds. It is unclear whether Obama will extend to Deeds such a rigorous effort, but time is running out and the longer they wait the better McDonnell’s chances are.    

For more info: 

The Virginia Governor's Race: Analyzing the Debate - washingtonpost.com

Creigh Deeds Making Virginia Dems Wish They'd Picked Terry McAuliffe

2 State Races May Put Lens on President - NYTimes.com

GOP Needs a Long Hard Look in the Rear-View Mirror | Politics In Color

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Analysis: Michael Steele's NAACP speech