Tropics could heat up this week

We have two potential areas to watch this week. The first is going to be in the Bahamas as we could see an upper level low translate down to the surface by mid to late week. The 00z NAM showed a system there and the GFS has shown a weaker system. I don’t expect this to become a major system since it is likely going to involve a transition form a cold core to warm core system, whatever develops is also going to be kicked out pretty quick as we see another trough come into the east late this week and the weekend.

 

The bigger story could be a potential system in the western Caribbean. As you can see from the below satellite image, there is already disturbed weather in this area although it is not well organized at the moment. The ECMWF for several runs, although yesterday’s 12z run backed off a bit, has shown development in this area. In last night’s 0z run the Euro brought the storm back and shows a tropical system heading towards the western tip of Cuba and Florida in about 7-10 days. The 0z GFS run finally showed a system in this area as well for the first time but kept the system buried in the western Caribbean. While the 0z Canadian model showed a hurricane hitting western Florida in about 10 days.

 

The bottom line is that this is an area we must watch since all the global models are showing some sort of development in this region over the next week or so. Climatology favors this area and we have recently seen a more conducive atmospheric environment develop in the Atlantic. As of now, I think we may see something develop here, and my early thoughts are that the eastern Gulf and Cuba are most at risk.

 ECMWF Day8