North Carolina weather outlook 2/27/08 significant winter storm on tap

Five Day Forecast for North Carolina - Issued February 27th, 2009

“Heavy rain likely Saturday-Saturday evening (1-3 inches)”

“Significant snowstorm possible Sunday-Monday.”

Discussion:

A very busy forecast period is on tap with several rounds of precipitation coming up over the next 4 days. Today a cold front will approach the state and a band of showers currently over Tennessee will push east and weaken as it moves across the state today. The best rainfall totals will be in the mountains and southern piedmont areas where a 0.25 to 0.5 inch of rain is possible. Further east the rain will arrive later and be weaker where only a 0.1 to 0.25 inch is possible through this evening.

We will see a break in the rain tonight, but a large area of moderate to heavy rain will blossom later today and tonight over Alabama and Georgia and than move east-northeast through the state during the day on Saturday bringing a steady, heavy downpour for much of the day. We could see as much as 1-3 inches of rain tomorrow and tomorrow evening across a good portion of the state. You will also notice it will feel much colder on Saturday, as colder air begins to filter into the state from the north temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s for most areas in the foothills and piedmont by afternoon.

The models overnight have began to trend towards track scenario #2 that I laid out yesterday here www.examiner.com/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m2d26-Afternoon-update-on-weekend-southeast-storm .This means an increased chance of significant snow for North Carolina. We will likely see a break in the precipitation on Saturday night, but an area of rain mixed with snow and snow will begin to take shape over Alabama, Georgia, and east Tennessee Saturday night and begin to spread into the upstate of South Carolina and the mountains of NC by Sunday morning. The precipitation could be in the form of sleet Sunday morning in the mountains initially before changing to snow. This area of precipitation will really blossom Sunday morning over northern and central Georgia, upstate South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where any sleet or mixed precipitation will change to snow and begin to accumulate significantly. This will slowly spread east during the day Sunday. It looks like most areas will see the precipitation begin as sleet before changing to snow. Precipitation should transition to snow for most of the state from west to east overnight Sunday. The snow will begin to taper off in western sections early Monday morning and in the central sections by mid morning Monday and in eastern sections by lunchtime. This has the potential to be a significant disruption and heavy snow is likely to fall somewhere in the state. As of this moment, it appears the heaviest snows could fall in the foothills and piedmont sections of North Carolina. The mountains will also see significant snow. I will probably begin to post exact amounts of snow tomorrow, as by then we should have even more clarity. But someone could end up close to a foot if they are in the right spot, and a general 4-12 inch snowfall is possible for the mountains east to the coastal plain.

The snow should end in most places by Monday morning, and then conditions will turn much quieter with a cool Monday-Tuesday period, which could be even colder than forecast depending on how much and who gets the snow.

I will issue at least one update, this afternoon, if not more depending on the time I have. Over the weekend, I will make storm specific posts, although I will be in Wilmington tomorrow afternoon through mid-day Sunday, so I am not sure when they will be.

Today:

Asheville: Mostly Cloudy with a good chance of rain developing in the morning and than continuing through the day. High 57.

Charlotte: Mostly Cloudy with chance of rain in the afternoon. High 65.

Greensboro: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of rain in the afternoon. High 64.

Raleigh: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of rain by late afternoon. High 68.

Wilmington: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of rain by evening. High 72.

Tonight/Saturday:

Asheville: Mostly Cloudy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Temperatures steady in the mid 40s falling to low 40s in the afternoon.

Charlotte: Mostly Cloudy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Temperatures around 53-54 in the morning falling into the mid 40s by afternoon.

Greensboro: Mostly Cloudy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Temperatures in the 45-47 range in the morning falling into the upper 30s in the afternoo

Raleigh: Mostly Cloudy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Temperatures near 50 in the morning falling to near 40 in the afternoon.

Wilmington: Mostly Cloudy with rain likely, possibly heavy at times. Low 52. High 64.

Saturday night/Sunday:

Asheville: Mostly Cloudy with rain ending overnight. A mix of sleet and snow will develop around daybreak, and change to snow in the morning and last through the day. Significant accumulation is possible. Low 32. High 35 (falling into the low 30s by afternoon).

Charlotte: Mostly Cloudy with rain overnight ending. A mix of rain, sleet and snow will develop Sunday morning changing to snow by mid-day. Some accumulation is possible. Low 36. High 37 (but falling into the low to mid 30s by afternoon).

Greensboro: Mostly Cloudy with rain overnight ending. A mix of rain, sleet, and snow will develop Sunday morning changing to snow by late afternoon. Some accumulation of sleet and snow is possible. Low 33. High 35 (but falling into the low 30s in the afternoon).

Raleigh: Mostly Cloudy with rain overnight ending by morning. A mix of rain and sleet will develop by early afternoon changing to sleet by late afternoon into the evening. Some accumulation of sleet is possible. Low 35. High 37 (but falling into the low to mid 30s by evening).

Wilmington: Mostly Cloudy with rain overnight diminishing by morning and then picking back up again by late morning. Temperatures around 50 in the morning falling into the low 40s by afternoon.

Sunday night/Monday:

Asheville: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of snow overnight ending Monday morning then Partly Sunny. Significant accumulations are possible. Low 22. High 34.

Charlotte: Mostly Cloudy with snow overnight ending Monday morning then Partly Cloudy. Significant accumulation is possible. Low 26. High 34.

Greensboro: Mostly Cloudy with snow overnight and lasting until Monday morning then Partly Cloudy. Significant ccumulation is possible. Low 26. High 33.

Raleigh: Mostly Cloudy with sleet changing to snow between 9pm-midnight, with significant accumulation possible, snow should end by Monday morning and then Mostly Cloudy. Low 27. High 34.

Wilmington: Mostly Cloudy with rain changing to sleet towards late in the evening and then snow after midnight ending by mid to late morning, and then Mostly Cloudy. Some accumulation is possible. Low 30. High 37

Monday night/Tuesday:

Asheville: Partly Sunny. Low 21. High 44.

Charlotte: Partly Sunny. Low 22. High 45.

Greensboro: Partly Sunny. Low 21. High 43.

Raleigh: Partly Sunny. Low 22. High 44.

Wilmington: Partly Sunny. Low 26. High 50

Extended Outlook (Wednesday-Friday)

"Dry and quiet"

I looks like a dry week after Monday morning for the state with temperatures near or slightly below normal Wednesday and Thursday and above normal Friday. This would mean highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s/30s Wednesday and Thursday and highs in the 60s by Friday.

Please check out the national weather discussion if you are interested www.examiner.com/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m2d27-National-weather-outlook-22709