North Carolina weather discussion 6/1/09

Five Day Forecast (Today through Friday)

 “Heat intensifies next few days”

“Good chance of rain by Thursday”

“Friday could be very cool June day”

Well the rains have finally taken a break in the southeast. I have attached below the NWS precipitation analysis graphics for the last 7 days and you can see the very heavy rains that fell over the western Carolinas where many areas saw 4-8 inches of rain last week and into the weekend. What a difference a year can make.

As we head into this week, the next 2-3 days look to see only isolated coverage of afternoon showers and storms. There will certainly be some around, today the best chance will be over the southeast part of NC, but certainly one could pop in an isolated area anywhere in the state today and tomorrow. We will see a better chance of greater coverage of storms on Wednesday in the west as a cold front begins to approach and then the potential for most of the state to see storms on Thursday and possibly a steady, cool rain on Friday.

As far as temperatures go, we will see summer time temperatures across the state the next few days as highs will soar into the 90s for many in the central and eastern portions with perhaps a few readings in the 95-97 range in the eastern and southern piedmont and sandhills. This will be the hottest few days state-wide since last summer. Temperatures will cool of a bit on Thursday as clouds and storms will knock temperatures back into the 80s for the most part and then we have the potential to see a cloudy, showery, and very cool June day on Friday with many areas possibly not getting out of the 60s to low 70s. This would be well below normal and quite a shock to the system compared with the heat we will see the next few days. This could be the theme of the summer in the state, with the jet stream pattern likely not being supportive of more than 2-3 days in a row of big time heat or big time cool weather, but yet some days where we will see very hot readings and some with very cool summer readings.

Extended Forecast Discussion

 “Heat returns late in the weekend and early next week”

“But only last for few days before another front and rain returns by mid next week”

The cool weather and rain chance may hang on into the weekend but another warm surge looks poised to come east by Sunday and into early next week with another 2-3 days of temperatures in the 90s early next week. Then we will see another a cold front move towards the state with widespread showers and storms and another cool shot for a couple of days. I updated my summer 2009 forecast here over the weekend. I think this will likely be the pattern this summer. Heat will build up over the southern plains and deep south and then stream east into the southeast for a couple of days before cold fronts move through with showers and storms and cooler weather for a few days before the next heat surge builds west and then comes east. I would not be surprised to see a few days in July and early August where temperatures could exceed 100 for areas like Charlotte and Raleigh but I do not expect multi-day heat waves of temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.