“Another cold rain for most in the southeast this week, but…”
“Chance of a significant winter storm over the southeast next weekend”
We have a mostly cold rain event coming for the southeast, south of Virginia on Tuesday and then perhaps a bigger event for late in the week and next weekend. I cant rule out the possibility that the precipitation could begin in the wintry form Tuesday in parts of western North Carolina, but in general this will be all rain for our area of the country. Further north it will be a different story.
A more important system for wintry weather lovers, is on the way for Friday and into the weekend. This system has the potential to bring snow rather far to the south, and even has the potential to bring most if not all of it south of North Carolina! The ECMWF and UKMET models have persistently kept all the snow well south of North Carolina over much of central Georgia and South Carolina. Meanwhile the 12z GFS model and some of its ensemble members, as well as the Canadian model, show a less suppressed track and do bring at least some snow into North Carolina.
The synoptic pattern is this. A southern stream system will move across the southern US and will run into colder air over the eastern US. This cold air will be funneled down from the north by a strong 500mb upper level low over the Canadian Maritimes. There are two things to follow. One is exactly where this feature sets up will determine if this southern stream system can have enough room to become amplified and bring moisture far enough north to affect North Carolina. The ECMWF model shows this 500mb low further to the west over eastern Quebec, while the GFS and some of its members show this feature further east in the classic 50/50 low position just east of Newfoundland. Which ever model is correct will likely win this model war. Another thing to follow is the speed of the southern stream system. The ECMWF is quicker with this system and quickly runs it into a very flat upper flow over the southeast and thus crushes the system. While the GFS is slower and this allows the 500mb low over eastern Canada to edge east enough to give it some room to amplify.
SO in short, for those who want snow in Tennessee and North Carolina, you want to see the southern stream system trend slower and the 500mb low over the Canadian Maritimes to show an eastward trend. For those in SC/GA who want to see heavy snow, you probably want to see things stay similar to where they are, but perhaps see the southern stream system trend stronger.
Right now, this is a clear model war. The ECMWF has done pretty well with the last two major winter storms so I have to go with that model right now. Which means areas of SC/GA could see a significant snow while NC sees a glancing blow. However, plenty of days to follow this one await us.
GFS FHOUR 120
GFS FHOUR 144
ECMWF FHOUR 120
ECMWF FHOUR 144
Comments
Give it up. For all the hype about this being a great pattern, only the Triad and Asheville have had significant snow. You and others keep talking about the fabled "upcoming pattern" being ripe for significant snow in central NC, but it has only materialized for the Triad. I would give it up if I were you guys. This pattern sucks. I am moving to DC.
why is this all in bold? it looks ridiculous and this is just playing into the weather in a "what if" way.
I'm tired of this tease. You keep saying something big is coming up, but when the time comes, nothing major happens. why don't you foresee the awful warm air advection that keeps overperforming in central North Carolina or the dry slot when it is cold enough to snow? why don't you foresee the repetitive onslaught of warm air that keeps robbing NC of snow, and what do you see that will change this? I will believe it when I see it.
Um, to comments below, y'know we just had a 5-6" snowstorm...
And to add to what Raleigh Snow said....outside of that storm, nobody has definitively stated or forecast a snowstorm for this area. The point of this column is to offer a forecast (which has been done accurately) and then discuss the potential for any other threats on the horizon. The forecasts have been valid and so have the discussions.
The pattern has plenty of potential, but whether or not it pans out is another story. A discussion of potential is not a forecast. To state otherwise is foolish.
Jake, weird, and lucas, you guys do realize we are running above normal for snowfall so far this winter right? Sure the Triad and mountains have done better, they usually do that is what climo says.
This column talks about the details of individual storms when they come and also about longer range possibilities. If you guys cant handle this type of discussion, then dont read the column. Keep watching the news and going to the weather.com if that suits your needs. If you dont like the forecasts or the discussions than dont read the column. It really isnt that hard of a problem to solve.
Haha! That's what I was thinking. I belive that Jake, Weird, and Lucas are all the same person trolling.
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