January 4thNorth Carolina Weather Discussion
“Cold weather continues the next 10 day with the potential for snow late this week”
It was a very cold morning in North Carolina today with teens covering most of the state except the immediate coastal sections. The cold weather will continue through this week.
An upper level disturbance will pass through the area tonight and tomorrow and although moisture will be very limited, there could be enough lift for some clouds and perhaps even some snow showers in the mountains and a few flurries east of the mountains tonight and early tomorrow morning. As of now, even with the cold temperatures, I don’t know if it would snow hard enough to matter, but it is something to keep any eye on overnight and tomorrow morning for a renegade flurry east of the mountains. It will likely also result in overnight lows tonight being a bit warmer than the last two thanks to some clouds.
A more important upper level disturbance heads towards our area late this week as shortwave trough drops down from western Canada into the northern Rockies, northern Plains and eventually turns east across the Ohio Valley. The trends with the models have certainly been to focus the energy of this system into the northern part of the trough, closing off an upper 500mb low over the Dakotas, and then dropping into the Midwest. This will limit the amount of moisture advection into our region and also the dynamics capable of producing a lot of precipitation. However, I do not buy the bone dry GFS runs, which seems to be too quick and sheared out with the upper level energy, compared with the other models. The 00z GGEM and ECMWF both give measurable precipitation to most of the state Thursday evening through Friday with the mountains eastern parts of the state seeing the most and the foothills and western piedmont seeing the least. In general the mountains, central and eastern piedmont see between 0.1 to 0.25 inches of liquid equivalent qpf, with the coastal sections seeing more in the range of 0.25 to 0.3 inches, and in the case of the ECMWF the Outer Banks seeing closer to 0.5 inches. The atmosphere looks to be cold enough to support mostly snow, although coastal sections may be on the border. If QPF is between 0.1 and 0.25 inches in general, with the probability of good snow to liquid ratios on the order of 15 or 20 to 1, we are talking about the potential for a widespread 1-3 or 2-4 inch snowfall. The odds of this becoming a bigger deal than this are low, as it appears the 500mb s/w will not dig say into Texas, but will focus it’s energy into the northern part of the trough which will glide east through the Ohio Valley. This is not the usual setup for a major winter event here, but with the cold temperatures to follow this storm, any snow that falls will stick around a few days and could help enhance the very cold weather coming this weekend. I do expect the GFS to trend wetter though.
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As for this coming weekend, we will likely see temperatures similar to or colder than what we saw this past weekend. The GFS is forecasting lows in the singled digits for Sunday and Monday morning for the mountains and foothills and teens for the central and eastern sections of the state, and the GFS doesn’t forecast any snowcover to be on the ground. If we do get a couple of inches of snow, lows in the single digits for a good part of the state are possible Sunday and/or Monday mornings.
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Several disturbances will dive west of our area next week and with colder than normal temperatures, although not as cold as we are currently seeing, holding on, any one would have the potential to produce wintery weather, although no one clear threat exists as of this morning. Some runs of the global models, including last night’s 00z GGEM, show the potential for a threat around 1/13.
Down the road we may see this cold pattern take a break with temperatures even going above normal for the 1/15-1/20 period. In general with a persistent –NAO in place though, I think the southeast US will be cooler than normal for the most part, but this unrelenting cold pattern will end. We will have to see if and how strong the cold pattern may come back down the road.
Comments
gfs 12 looks a lot better here hopeing it a little stronger but still good
12z GFS certianly beefed up precip totals, esepcially west of the Apps, and actually has some precip now over NC LOL. I think it will likely trend towards the GGEM/ECMWF precip amounts the next few cycles.
allen you think the closer you are to the east you live the more snow you could see out of this one new low forms near the coast right
i meant to put my name sorry
I am just not very optimistic about our chances of anything other than a few flakes here, especially given the trends of the last 24 hrs. Just looked at the new Canadian, and there are even lesser qpf amounts showing up. This vort just is showing NO signs of digging farther south than currently modeled. In fact, it almost looks like it's trending the other way, slightly. We need to start seeing some more favorable trends, and I mean right now, or all we're going to see is just a few flakes or a dusting, which is better than nothing, I guess.
Maybe the models are underestimating the qpf, I don't know...I don't have the experience that would confirm or deny that possibility. But we're starting to get within a time range where less flip-flopping is going to occur. If we don't start to see favorable trends by tomorrow, I think it's time to throw in the towel. If I'm wrong, tell me.
It is such a shame to waste this great cold, especially since we'll probably warm up soon.
jason the cmc just show clipper low farther north in my opion you cant compare the cmc too the gfs.gfs is a better model if the clipper low go south or north the frocast will change
Ronnie,
I was comparing the new 12Z CMC to the 0Z CMC. The 12Z run keeps the vort farther north and keeps us much drier. Sorry for the confusion.
By the way, I'm in Raleigh. Where are you located?
Euro isn't going to be much help either, it doesn't look like. Sigh.
Dr. No comes through again...:)
But I guess there's still time *rolls eyes*. The Euro isn't god.
Take heart though, everyone. The Euro is showing another threat in the 216-240 timeframe. How storms so frequently depicted in the long range so infrequently look the same in the short range is just mind-boggling. I don't understand it. But on many occasions, nothing in the long range ends up verifying pretty close to the prog.
I don't understand why in the long range you see so many anamolous 500 mb lows so far to the south, but that rarely ends up being the case when verification time comes around. If it's really so impossible for this to happen, why is it so frequently depicted?
I think they like teasing us...:(
The 12z GGEM and ECMWF were definitely drier with the GFS a little wetter than last run. All give less that 0.1 for most areas. Obviously that would be a dusting probably an not a lot more.
I will say if it still looks bone dry 24 hours from now, then I will be more convinced the models are right. I dont expect this to be a huge qpf event and havent ever. The setup isnt right.
However, there is still a possibility that the system will dig a bit more and tap more gulf moisture. If that happens then a 0.1 to 0.3 qpf event is still possible all snow so a 1-3 or 2-4 inch snow. That is still on the table, but for now looks to be the ceiling.
Down the road the 1/13 time frame is our next threat, but all the models are looking a bit odd at this time frame right now and are changing dramatically from run to run. The 12z ECMWF just looks bizarre. So plenty of time to see if this is a real threat or a waste. Literally the ECMWF gives a moderate snow event to western NC 1/13.
Thanks for the update, Allan. I agree that the pattern does not resemble one that would produce a major event. I had the same thoughts about the longer range Euro too -- very odd-looking. I'm thinking by that time, the magnitude of the cold air will be less than now, and it will probably be starting to wane a bit. It certainly is frustrating wasting this current fresh cold air mass.
The fun thing about the weather is that it can and does often throw in a few surprises. However, I'm having trouble optimistically finding opportunities for any kind of surprise. Everything looks well offshore, well to the north or well to the south. The PNA ridge looks to migrate too far Eastward in the medium range to do much good, other than to maintain a cold, dry flow. And then, the pattern looks to relax, which would mean even less liklihood for frozen.
I guess the good news is, this might be the highest comment total in any of your blogs yet. :)
Jason, Just imagine what it will be like if we ever actuall get a good winter storm for the Triangle! The 00z NAM was a little better than the 18z run, but still bone dry for much of central NC. But showing some light snows for the mountains and coastal sections. Heck Hatteras and Wilmington see snow from this solution.
This cold pattern looks to wind down in about 10 days, so hopefully we can squeeze something out, it is very true that most major snowstorms at least for the Raleigh area I remember over the last 15 years did not show up consistently in model guidance till about 72 hour or less out. So something could pop up especially withe subtropical jet re-intensifying in a few days. Lots of jet energy down there in af ew days and keep in mind this areas does not have a great deal of data, so something could come out of this with little warning.
dont yall give up yet new cmc trys too make a noreaster out of this thing is this a trend to come or is this just the cmc
Allan, I hear ya! Good point about the STJ too. We may just have a surprise or two before it's all said and done. A few of last night's runs do show the STJ engaging again at some point. Hopefully we can have some good fortune with regards to timing. A couple of models are still trying to send some northern stream energy south, so maybe we can link that up with something unforeseen coming out of the STJ. Anyway, not trying to steal your thunder here. Look forward to reading your next blog.
Jason
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