Hurricane Earl
Hurricane Earl continues to impressively maintain category 4 status this morning with recon finding pressures in the 930-935 mb range and flight level winds in the 125-135 kt range. Earl continues at about the same intensity that Hurricane Hugo was back in 1989 at the time of landfall.
Earl is so far following the track ideas pretty well. He looks to be turning north very near 75W, and may not see much more in the way of westward movement. Now we will just have to see when the storm starts to edge east. Cape Hatteras is at 75.5W or so if Earl has indeed ended his westward motion; it looks like the Outer Banks will be spared a direct hit. Most guidance has the storm around 74.5W when it passes the latitude of Hatteras; this would mean a passage of the eye about 75 miles east of there. While this would spare the Outer Banks the worst effects, it would still put the Outer Banks in the western eyewall of what will likely still be a category 3 hurricane tonight. Winds will likely still be sustained in the 75-100 mph range with gusts near or over 100 mph in those regions along with 4-8 inches of rain.
Further north, the outer bands of the hurricane will likely brush the mid-Atlantic coast but likely only tropical storm force winds will be felt there. Further north the storm looks to make a very close pass to Nantucket and the eastern parts of Cape Cod. I think we could see tropical storm force winds across Long Islands, particularly central and eastern sections. The 12z NHC ATCF models shifted slightly east off of Cape Cod which if true may mean a little less of an impact. However, they may trend back west at 18z, so we can’t place too much stock in that yet. Either way, I think the center could pass within 50 miles of Nantucket and at the time he will likely be a category 1 or 2 storm. This would likely bring winds of hurricane force to Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and the Cape. This would obviously be a severe hit for those areas. I think metro Boston will likely see wind gusts possibly to 50 mph.
The storm could bring tropical storm force winds as well to coastal Maine and then perhaps hurricane force winds to the Canadian Maritimes.
Tropical Storm Fiona
Fiona continues to survive with winds of 50 mph. However the satellite appearance shows the affects of some northerly shear with most of the convection displaced south of a partially exposed low level center. Most model guidance shows the storm maintaining strength or weakening over the next few days. The exception is the GFDL model which shows the trough leaving Fiona behind and then slowly strengthening.
Most models though show the storm recurving slowly to the northeast and out to sea. Right now I favor this scenario, but I will watch it.
Tropical Storm Gaston
Gaston is not strengthening this morning with the convection limited. It also is not moving very much as it has reached the western flank of the subtropical ridge to its northeast.
It appears that this upper ridge will migrate to the west along with Gaston the next week steering Gaston to the west and keeping it at rather far south latitude. This storm appears to be a threat to the Islands next week. Intensity models shows steady strengthening, some more than others, but I expect Gaston to be a hurricane in 3 days or so and perhaps a major cane by the time it threatens the Islands.
Beyond this, the track of Gaston will be dependent on troughs moving across North America. It appears the western flank of the ridge will weaken as a trough moves across the northeast into the north Atlantic. This should turn the storm northwest and it could threaten the Greater Antilles. At that point we will just have to sea if the trough will be enough to turn Gaston out to sea or just result in a northwest motion in a while.
The synoptic weather pattern favors frequent trough passages through the northeast with rebuilding shortwave ridges over the southeast and western Atlantic. So it will all depend on timing, which is impossible to pin down right now.
More waves are lining up behind Gaston so the very active Cape Verde part of the hurricane season looks to continue for a while.
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