High pressure remains in control

High pressure continues to have a strong hold on New Jersey this morning as dry conditions and scattered clouds can be expected today through Thursday morning.  However, a storm is brewing further to the west.  

A strong upper low has developed over the Mississippi Valley and will slowly move towards the eastern Great Lakes by the end of the week.  The upper low will begin to interact with the Polar jet stream and weaken on Thursday night, while the upper trough associated with the upper low will tilt towards a negative axis along the Mid Atlantic coast.  As a result, a slow moving cold front will move through New Jersey on Thursday night through Friday with periods of rain.  The southeast to northwest position of the trough will allow plenty of moisture to move into the New Jersey coast ahead of the cold front, which may lead to areas of heavy rainfall on Friday morning especially along the coast.  

Meanwhile, a Sub Tropical disturbance will begin to organize over Texas on Friday and drive towards the Gulf Coast by Saturday morning.  With the cold front from the previous upper disturbance stalling over the Gulf Coast up through the Mid Atlantic coast, an environment favorable for cyclone genesis will present itself on Saturday night.  However, there is some question on whether this coastal low will be forced to far east to have an impact or remain along the coast.  For now, I am illustrating the threat.  As we have seen over the past several weeks, model guidance is having a very difficult time with handling these types of disturbances and I think a wise approach is to keep the threat in mind and adjust as I get more data.

Here is the latest seven day forecast.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Today: Clear skies with winds from the northeast around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 40's to lower 50's over the interior and mid to upper 50's along the coast.

Tonight: Clear skies with winds from the northeast around 5 to 10 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 20's to lower 30's over the interior and mid 30's to mid 40's along the coast.  The warmest conditions will be found along the immediate coast and urban locations.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds with winds from the east around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 50's over the interior and upper 50's to lower 60's along the coast.

Wednesday Night:  Overcast skies with winds from the east around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 20's to mid 30's over the interior and upper 30's to upper 40's along the coast.  The warmest conditions will be found along the immediate coast.

Thursday:  Overcast skies with showers towards late evening.  Winds will be from the east and southeast around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 50's over the interior and lower to mid 60's along the coast.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

Friday: Periods of rain, especially in the morning.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30's over the interior and upper 30's to lower 40's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the upper 40's to lower 50's over the interior and mid to upper 50's along the coast.

Saturday: Broken clouds with scattered showers in the morning.  Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30's over the interior and lower to mid 40's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the upper 40's to lower 50's over the interior and mid to upper 50's along the coast.

Sunday: Overcast with periods of rain in the evening.  Low temperatures will range from the upper 30's to lower 40's over the interior and mid to upper 40's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the upper 40's to lower 50's over the interior and mid to upper 50's along the coast.

Monday: Periods of rain, especially in the morning.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30's over the interior and upper 30's to lower 40's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 40's over the interior and upper 40's to mid 50's along the coast.

Tuesday:  Scattered to broken clouds.  Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 30's over the interior and upper 30's to lower 40's along the coast.  High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 40's over the interior and upper 40's to mid 50's along the coast.